--- title: "5% Golden Fever case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Golden Fever ($9.38) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.37% from 15 items with odds, observed 86.99% over 1,304 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Golden Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Golden Fever A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732?window=all) Price · $9.38 · 14.77 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.37% · EV $8.19 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.99% · 1,304 openings, odds method Variance · 48.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 77 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 91.84% ±42.31 1,040 openings 30 days · 86.99% ±37.78 1,304 openings since tracking started · 86.99% ±37.78 1,304 openings -0.5% 278.8% 558.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732?window=24h) | 6 | 0.14% ±557.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732?window=7d) | 1,040 | 91.84% ±42.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732) | 1,304 | 86.99% ±37.8 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/732?window=all) | 1,304 | 86.99% ±37.8 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,304 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,236 6,672 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,622 4,130 HUNT\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $2,361 3,718 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $868 1,367 HUNT\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $507 798 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $437 689 HUNT\_COIN | 5.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $339 534 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $266 419 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.30× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $188 295 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 10 | 5.2 | 1.92× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $146 229 HUNT\_COIN | 8.9% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.38× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $142 224 HUNT\_COIN | 12.2% | 13 | 9.1 | 1.42× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $96.95 153 HUNT\_COIN | 11.8% | 10 | 13.0 | 0.77× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT\_COIN | 10.0% | 23 | 19.6 | 1.18× | | [Sticker \| NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 1,227 | 1238.8 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=732) [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $188 295 HUNT\_COIN 19.99x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $9.38 14.77 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.38 | 87.37% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.9% extraordinary 1.1% other 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.37 on average: an expected loss of $12.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt