---
title: "Cobalt case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cobalt ($1.78) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.86% from 11 items with odds, observed 45.41% over 493 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Cobalt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Cobalt

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789?window=all)

Price · $1.78 · 2.81 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.86% · EV $1.60 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 45.41% · 493 openings, odds method

Variance · 22.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 70 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 33 openings · below min

7 days · 58.40% ±47.15 382 openings

30 days · 45.41% ±41.50 493 openings

since tracking started · 45.41% ±41.50 493 openings

-0.5% 114.3% 229.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.86% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (3.90% – 86.91%, 493 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789?window=24h) | 33 | 67.92% ±160.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789?window=7d) | 382 | 58.40% ±47.2 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789) | 493 | 45.41% ±41.5 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/789?window=all) | 493 | 45.41% ±41.5 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 493 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $231 364 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $137 216 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $94.03 148 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $74.51 117 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $59.70 94.02 HUNT\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $47.75 75.21 HUNT\_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $39.58 62.34 HUNT\_COIN | 13.6% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $29.23 46.03 HUNT\_COIN | 13.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $23.61 37.19 HUNT\_COIN | 19.1% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $17.21 27.11 HUNT\_COIN | 16.3% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× |
| [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.8% | 478 | 468.3 | 1.02× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=789)

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $39.58 62.34 HUNT\_COIN 22.19x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2.81 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.78 | 89.86% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.9% covert knife 0.1% Ancient 0.1% classified 0.1% Legendary 1.8% restricted 2.0% other 95.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.86 on average: an expected loss of $10.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt