--- title: "10 profit case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10 profit ($5.12) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.34% from 5 items with odds, observed 116.74% over 1,150 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10 profit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10 profit A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802?window=all) Price · $5.12 · 8.06 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.34% · EV $4.47 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.74% · 1,150 openings, odds method Variance · 55.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72 openings · below min 7 days · 72.03% ±52.62 766 openings 30 days · 116.74% ±42.95 1,150 openings since tracking started · 116.74% ±42.95 1,150 openings -0.5% 102.8% 206.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802?window=24h) | 72 | 33.88% ±171.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802?window=7d) | 766 | 72.03% ±52.6 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802) | 1,150 | 116.74% ±42.9 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/802?window=all) | 1,150 | 116.74% ±42.9 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,150 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 418 | $770 1,213 HUNT\_COIN | 41.2% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $30.86 48.61 HUNT\_COIN | 28.2% | 49 | 47.0 | 1.04× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $12.08 19.03 HUNT\_COIN | 18.0% | 71 | 76.5 | 0.93× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 22.0% | $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 252 | 253.3 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 67.0% | $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 773 | 770.5 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $770 1,213 HUNT\_COIN 150.5x 2026-11-05 12:53 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $770 1,213 HUNT\_COIN 150.5x 2026-11-04 09:46 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $770 1,213 HUNT\_COIN 150.5x 2026-11-04 07:34 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $770 1,213 HUNT\_COIN 150.5x 2026-11-04 07:07 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $770 1,213 HUNT\_COIN 150.5x 2026-11-04 04:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=802) [Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $12.08 19.03 HUNT\_COIN 2.36x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC [Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC [Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $5.12 8.06 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.12 | 87.34% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.9% Industrial Grade 4.1% restricted 22.0% other 67.0% best hit $770 (150.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.34 on average: an expected loss of $12.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt