--- title: "1% blue steel case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% blue steel ($2.95) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.47% from 8 items with odds, observed 102.91% over 601 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [1% blue steel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 1% blue steel A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813?window=all) Price · $2.95 · 4.64 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.47% · EV $2.58 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.91% · 601 openings, odds method Variance · 217.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 405 openings · below min 30 days · 601 openings · below min since tracking started · 601 openings · below min -0.5% 126.3% 253.0% **Small sample.** 601 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813?window=7d) | 405 | 108.83% ±143.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813) | 601 | 102.91% ±117.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/813?window=all) | 601 | 102.91% ±117.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 616 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,179 3,432 HUNT\_COIN | 25.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $467 735 HUNT\_COIN | 12.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $313 493 HUNT\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $263 414 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $209 330 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $153 241 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $129 203 HUNT\_COIN | 25.1% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 607 | 609.8 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Trevor Lett](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Trevor%20Lett) $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $467 735 HUNT\_COIN 158.4x 2026-11-07 06:45 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $263 414 HUNT\_COIN 89.20x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $263 414 HUNT\_COIN 89.20x 2026-11-03 20:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $153 241 HUNT\_COIN 51.88x 2026-11-07 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $153 241 HUNT\_COIN 51.88x 2026-11-06 03:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=813) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Trevor Lett](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Trevor%20Lett) $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:52 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:52 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:52 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Trevor Lett](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Trevor%20Lett) $2.95 4.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.95 | 87.47% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.0% covert 0.8% Covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% consumer 99.0% best hit $467 (158.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.47 on average: an expected loss of $12.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt