--- title: "10% Knife ez win case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Knife ez win ($7.18) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.41% from 7 items with odds, observed 114.63% over 152 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Knife ez win](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Knife ez win A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823?window=all) Price · $7.18 · 11.31 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.41% · EV $6.28 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 114.63% · 152 openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 114.63% ±43.19 152 openings 30 days · 114.63% ±43.19 152 openings since tracking started · 114.63% ±43.19 152 openings 71.0% 114.8% 158.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823?window=7d) | 152 | 114.63% ±43.2 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823) | 152 | 114.63% ±43.2 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/823?window=all) | 152 | 114.63% ±43.2 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $329 518 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 334 | $146 229 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $86.53 136 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $61.77 97.29 HUNT\_COIN | 34.4% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.32× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 43.7% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 134 | 136.8 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=823) [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN 7.65x 2026-11-09 19:27 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN 7.65x 2026-11-09 19:27 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:27 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:27 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.18 | 87.41% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 4.0% covert 6.0% other 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.41 on average: an expected loss of $12.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt