--- title: "Hot rod case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hot rod ($443.83) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 71.45% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Hot rod](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Hot rod A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83?window=all) Price · $443.83 · 699 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.00% · EV $386.13 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.45% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 75.0% 150.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83?window=7d) | 8 | 71.45% ±78.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83) | 8 | 71.45% ±78.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/83?window=all) | 8 | 71.45% ±78.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN | 58.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 25.0% | $444 700 HUNT\_COIN | 28.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 25.0% | $194 306 HUNT\_COIN | 12.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [Sticker \| Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) | 35.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN 3.40x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=83) [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $194 306 HUNT\_COIN 0.44x 2026-11-09 20:27 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [dwiauhdas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/dwiauhdas) $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $444 700 HUNT\_COIN 1.00x 2026-11-09 20:27 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN 3.40x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $194 306 HUNT\_COIN 0.44x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $194 306 HUNT\_COIN 0.44x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) [DameTime](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DameTime) $444 699 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $444 | 87.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 15.0% mil spec 50.0% #4b69ff 35.0% best hit $1,509 (3.40x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.00 on average: an expected loss of $13.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt