---
title: "Pablo Jose case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pablo Jose ($0.02) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.77% from 6 items with odds, observed 75.90% over 1,960 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Pablo Jose](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Pablo Jose

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839?window=all)

Price · $0.02 · 0.03 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 84.77% · EV $0.02 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.90% · 1,960 openings, odds method

Variance · 32.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 48.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 66.67% ±93.44 144 openings

7 days · 66.67% ±29.29 1,465 openings

30 days · 75.90% ±25.33 1,960 openings

since tracking started · 75.90% ±25.33 1,960 openings

-0.5% 80.3% 161.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839?window=24h) | 144 | 66.67% ±93.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839?window=7d) | 1,465 | 66.67% ±29.3 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839) | 1,960 | 75.90% ±25.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/839?window=all) | 1,960 | 75.90% ±25.3 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,961 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $3.46 5.45 HUNT\_COIN | 21.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 24.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 481 | 470.6 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 24.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 471 | 470.6 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 80 | 76.5 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-sage-spray-well-worn) | 24.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 470 | 470.6 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 24.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 458 | 470.6 | 0.97× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=839)

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-sage-spray-well-worn) [B.ff@15acemcgiseng](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/B.ff%4015acemcgiseng) $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-sage-spray-well-worn) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [yoloman2003 CASEBATTLES.GG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/yoloman2003%20CASEBATTLES.GG) $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-sage-spray-well-worn) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-sage-spray-well-worn) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $0.02 0.03 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.02 | 84.77% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Consumer Grade 24.1% consumer 27.9% Common 48.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.77 on average: an expected loss of $15.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt