--- title: "Test what case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Test what ($1.85) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.77% from 8 items with odds, observed 58.54% over 35 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Test what](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Test what A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844?window=all) Price · $1.85 · 2.91 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.77% · EV $1.66 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.54% · 35 openings, odds method Variance · 21.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 29 openings · below min 30 days · 35 openings · below min since tracking started · 35 openings · below min -0.5% 110.8% 222.0% **Small sample.** 35 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844?window=7d) | 29 | 53.74% ±167.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844) | 35 | 58.54% ±152.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/844?window=all) | 35 | 58.54% ±152.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $392 618 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $390 615 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $136 214 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT\_COIN | 16.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $12.43 19.57 HUNT\_COIN | 37.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.33 13.12 HUNT\_COIN | 25.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) | 89.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 32 | 31.2 | 1.03× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=844) [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) [Trevor Lett](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Trevor%20Lett) $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 12:58 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 12:58 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 12:58 UTC [Sticker | Huaji sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-huaji) Hidden $1.85 2.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 12:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.85 | 89.77% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.6% epic 0.0% classified 5.0% Restricted 5.0% #8847ff 0.4% high 89.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.77 on average: an expected loss of $10.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt