--- title: "Green Chaos 25% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Green Chaos 25% ($2.31) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.40% from 5 items with odds, observed 68.15% over 89 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Green Chaos 25%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Green Chaos 25% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847?window=all) Price · $2.31 · 3.64 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.40% · EV $2.02 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.15% · 89 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 89 openings · below min 30 days · 89 openings · below min since tracking started · 89 openings · below min 27.5% 68.3% 109.0% **Small sample.** 89 openings and 13.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847?window=7d) | 89 | 68.15% ±40.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847) | 89 | 68.15% ±40.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/847?window=all) | 89 | 68.15% ±40.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 89 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN | 49.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.25 8.27 HUNT\_COIN | 26.0% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.61 5.69 HUNT\_COIN | 17.9% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× | | [Sticker \| Green's Problem sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-greens-problem) | 25.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 25 | 22.3 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) | 50.0% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 46 | 44.5 | 1.03× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=847) [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:40 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:40 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:40 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:40 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:40 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:40 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:36 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:36 UTC [Sticker | Green's Problem sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-greens-problem) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-09 17:36 UTC [Sticker | Dragon sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon) Hidden $2.31 3.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 17:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.31 | 87.40% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed blue 5.0% industrial 10.0% restricted 10.0% Rare 75.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.40 on average: an expected loss of $12.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt