--- title: "Usp 15% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Usp 15% ($3.35) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.41% from 5 items with odds, observed 71.47% over 106 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Usp 15%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Usp 15% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848?window=all) Price · $3.35 · 5.27 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.41% · EV $2.92 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.47% · 106 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84 openings · below min 7 days · 71.47% ±37.11 106 openings 30 days · 71.47% ±37.11 106 openings since tracking started · 71.47% ±37.11 106 openings 27.0% 69.3% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848?window=24h) | 84 | 69.31% ±41.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848?window=7d) | 106 | 71.47% ±37.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848) | 106 | 71.47% ±37.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/848?window=all) | 106 | 71.47% ±37.1 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $22.22 35 HUNT\_COIN | 76.0% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.75× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.50 7.09 HUNT\_COIN | 7.7% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 15.0% | $2.10 3.31 HUNT\_COIN | 10.8% | 15 | 15.9 | 0.94× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 35.0% | $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 36 | 37.1 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-battle-scarred) | 35.0% | $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 41 | 37.1 | 1.11× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=848) [Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $4.50 7.09 HUNT\_COIN 1.35x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-battle-scarred) [z30cutie](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/z30cutie) $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $2.10 3.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.63x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $3.35 5.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.35 | 87.41% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mythical 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% Classified 15.0% mil spec 35.0% blueLight 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.41 on average: an expected loss of $12.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt