--- title: "M4A4 10% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "M4A4 10% ($2.03) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.43% from 3 items with odds, observed 110.77% over 461 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850 rendered: 2026-11-12T00:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [M4A4 10%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · M4A4 10% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850?window=all) Price · $2.03 · 3.19 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.43% · EV $1.77 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 110.77% · 461 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 108.94% ±18.74 455 openings 30 days · 110.77% ±18.62 461 openings since tracking started · 110.77% ±18.62 461 openings 87.0% 108.5% 130.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.43% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.14% – 129.39%, 461 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850?window=7d) | 455 | 108.94% ±18.7 | +2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850) | 461 | 110.77% ±18.6 | +2.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/850?window=all) | 461 | 110.77% ±18.6 | +2.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 461 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $14.15 22.29 HUNT\_COIN | 79.9% | 62 | 46.1 | 1.34× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN | 5.4% | 43 | 46.1 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 80.0% | $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN | 14.6% | 356 | 368.8 | 0.97× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=850) [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) [Momaaa @bandit](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Momaaa%20%40bandit) $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $14.15 22.29 HUNT\_COIN 6.99x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $14.15 22.29 HUNT\_COIN 6.99x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.03 3.19 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.03 | 87.43% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% other 10.0% #5e98d9 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.43 on average: an expected loss of $12.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt