--- title: "The Keys case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Keys ($16.96) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.41% from 6 items with odds, observed 74.11% over 298 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [The Keys](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · The Keys A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852?window=all) Price · $16.96 · 26.71 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.41% · EV $14.82 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.11% · 298 openings, sample method Variance · 28.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 82 openings · below min 30 days · 298 openings · below min since tracking started · 298 openings · below min -0.5% 214.5% 429.5% **Small sample.** 298 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852?window=24h) | 6 | 0.07% ±428.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852?window=7d) | 82 | 90.26% ±126.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852) | 298 | 74.11% ±53.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/852?window=all) | 298 | 74.11% ±53.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 298 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $806 1,269 HUNT\_COIN | 54.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $397 626 HUNT\_COIN | 26.8% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $191 301 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $51.39 80.94 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $35.77 56.33 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 285 | 283.1 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $806 1,269 HUNT\_COIN 47.50x 2026-11-07 12:22 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $806 1,269 HUNT\_COIN 47.50x 2026-11-04 06:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=852) [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.96 26.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $16.96 | 87.41% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 1.0% restricted 2.0% Covert 1.0% rare 1.0% consumer 95.0% best hit $806 (47.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.41 on average: an expected loss of $12.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt