--- title: "1% snowball case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% snowball ($1.46) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.47% from 10 items with odds, observed 67.26% over 78 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [1% snowball](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 1% snowball A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857?window=all) Price · $1.46 · 2.3 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.47% · EV $1.28 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.26% · 78 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 41.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 60 openings · below min 30 days · 78 openings · below min since tracking started · 78 openings · below min 15.0% 67.0% 119.0% **Small sample.** 78 openings and 32.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857?window=7d) | 60 | 67.12% ±51.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857) | 78 | 67.26% ±45.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/857?window=all) | 78 | 67.26% ±45.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $30.83 48.56 HUNT\_COIN | 24.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) | 10.0% | $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 13 | 7.8 | 1.67× | | [Sticker \| Max (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-max-holo) | 10.0% | $1.00 1.58 HUNT\_COIN | 7.9% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.28× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.53 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.28× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.53 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× | | [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 2 | 7.8 | 0.26× | | [Sticker \| Nice Clutch (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-clutch-holo) | 19.0% | $0.95 1.49 HUNT\_COIN | 14.1% | 18 | 14.8 | 1.21× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=857) [Sticker | Nice Clutch (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-clutch-holo) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $0.95 1.49 HUNT\_COIN 0.65x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Sticker | Max (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-max-holo) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $1.00 1.58 HUNT\_COIN 0.69x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Sticker | Nice Clutch (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-clutch-holo) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $0.95 1.49 HUNT\_COIN 0.65x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.66x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Sticker | Nice Clutch (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-clutch-holo) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $0.95 1.49 HUNT\_COIN 0.65x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) [Momaaa @bandit](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Momaaa%20%40bandit) $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.71x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $0.97 1.53 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-08 22:10 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $0.97 1.53 HUNT\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-08 22:10 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.66x 2026-11-08 22:10 UTC [Sticker | Max (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-max-holo) Hidden $1.46 2.3 HUNT\_COIN $1.00 1.58 HUNT\_COIN 0.69x 2026-11-08 22:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.46 | 87.47% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 1.0% #d32ce6 10.0% remarkable 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% blue 10.0% restricted 10.0% milspec 10.0% other 10.0% #8847ff 10.0% violet 19.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.47 on average: an expected loss of $12.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt