--- title: "Purple knife case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Purple knife ($7.79) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.43% from 8 items with odds, observed 150.06% over 67 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Purple knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Purple knife A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867?window=all) Price · $7.79 · 12.27 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.43% · EV $6.81 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 150.06% · 67 openings, odds method Variance · 53.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 67 openings · below min 30 days · 67 openings · below min since tracking started · 67 openings · below min -0.5% 162.3% 325.0% **Small sample.** 67 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867?window=7d) | 67 | 150.06% ±174.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867) | 67 | 150.06% ±174.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/867?window=all) | 67 | 150.06% ±174.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $903 1,422 HUNT\_COIN | 26.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 29.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $54.17 85.32 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $45.14 71.1 HUNT\_COIN | 6.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $9.31 14.67 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.90× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $7.63 12.02 HUNT\_COIN | 9.0% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.75× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 84.1% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 58 | 56.3 | 1.03× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN 87.14x 2026-11-09 08:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=867) [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [Nopejustbot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Nopejustbot) $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [Nopejustbot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Nopejustbot) $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 10:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $7.79 12.27 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 08:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.79 | 87.43% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.9% classified 1.0% consumer 84.1% best hit $679 (87.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.43 on average: an expected loss of $12.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt