--- title: "Tryyourluck case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tryyourluck ($3.97) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.32% from 6 items with odds, observed 281.72% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Tryyourluck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Tryyourluck A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868?window=all) Price · $3.97 · 6.26 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.32% · EV $3.47 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 281.72% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 82.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 154 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 398.5% 797.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868?window=7d) | 12 | 281.72% ±515.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868) | 12 | 281.72% ±515.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/868?window=all) | 12 | 281.72% ±515.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $868 1,367 HUNT\_COIN | 25.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $123 194 HUNT\_COIN | 17.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $74.51 117 HUNT\_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $32.01 50.41 HUNT\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 98.4% | $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN | 28.1% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=868) [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $123 194 HUNT\_COIN 31.07x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $3.97 6.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.99 1.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.97 | 87.32% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% classified 0.6% blue 98.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.32 on average: an expected loss of $12.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt