--- title: "10% COME UP case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% COME UP ($18.31) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.37% from 5 items with odds, observed 65.57% over 40 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% COME UP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% COME UP A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878?window=all) Price · $18.31 · 28.84 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.37% · EV $16.00 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.57% · 40 openings, odds method Variance · 20.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 40 openings · below min since tracking started · 40 openings · below min -0.5% 109.5% 219.5% **Small sample.** 40 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878?window=7d) | 28 | 51.64% ±167.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878) | 40 | 65.57% ±139.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/878?window=all) | 40 | 65.57% ±139.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 29.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $409 645 HUNT\_COIN | 25.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $167 262 HUNT\_COIN | 26.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $48.33 76.12 HUNT\_COIN | 18.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [Sticker \| Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) | 90.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 35 | 36.0 | 0.97× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=878) [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $18.31 28.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.31 | 87.37% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% High Grade 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.37 on average: an expected loss of $12.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt