--- title: "5% Juicy case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Juicy ($5.87) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.42% from 4 items with odds, observed 131.09% over 162 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Juicy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Juicy A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887?window=all) Price · $5.87 · 9.24 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.42% · EV $5.13 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 131.09% · 162 openings, odds method Variance · 34.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 162 openings · below min 30 days · 162 openings · below min since tracking started · 162 openings · below min 40.5% 131.3% 222.0% **Small sample.** 162 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887?window=7d) | 162 | 131.09% ±90.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887) | 162 | 131.09% ±90.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/887?window=all) | 162 | 131.09% ±90.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $409 645 HUNT\_COIN | 39.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $236 372 HUNT\_COIN | 23.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $47.23 74.38 HUNT\_COIN | 36.8% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 155 | 153.9 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $409 645 HUNT\_COIN 69.79x 2026-11-08 19:16 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $409 645 HUNT\_COIN 69.79x 2026-11-08 19:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=887) [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) [Sewi #^](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sewi%20%23%5E) $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $5.87 9.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.87 | 87.42% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% covert knife 0.5% Classified 4.0% other 95.0% best hit $409 (69.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.42 on average: an expected loss of $12.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt