--- title: "5 % 5 dollar mystery box case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5 % 5 dollar mystery box ($3.17) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 5 items with odds, observed 28.77% over 86 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5 % 5 dollar mystery box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5 % 5 dollar mystery box A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900?window=all) Price · $3.17 · 4.99 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.77 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 28.77% · 86 openings, odds method Variance · 10.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 62 openings · below min 30 days · 86 openings · below min since tracking started · 86 openings · below min -0.5% 59.8% 120.0% **Small sample.** 86 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900?window=7d) | 62 | 37.98% ±81.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900) | 86 | 28.77% ±69.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/900?window=all) | 86 | 28.77% ±69.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $128 202 HUNT\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $64.65 102 HUNT\_COIN | 23.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $31.87 50.2 HUNT\_COIN | 43.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× | | [Sticker \| Gambit Gaming sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming) | 20.0% | $3.19 5.03 HUNT\_COIN | 23.0% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.81× | | [Sticker \| Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) | 75.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 71 | 64.5 | 1.10× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=900) [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Gambit Gaming sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $3.19 5.03 HUNT\_COIN 1.01x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Gambit Gaming sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $3.19 5.03 HUNT\_COIN 1.01x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [P2000 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $31.87 50.2 HUNT\_COIN 10.06x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC [Sticker | Gambit Gaming sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $3.19 5.03 HUNT\_COIN 1.01x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $3.17 4.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.17 | 87.50% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.2% mil spec 3.8% other 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt