--- title: "10% Purple case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Purple ($2.52) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.66% from 13 items with odds, observed 93.49% over 1,496 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Purple](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Purple A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904?window=all) Price · $2.52 · 3.97 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.66% · EV $2.23 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.49% · 1,496 openings, odds method Variance · 106.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 93.86% ±52.46 1,490 openings 30 days · 93.49% ±52.35 1,496 openings since tracking started · 93.49% ±52.35 1,496 openings -0.5% 414.5% 829.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904?window=24h) | 6 | 2.02% ±826.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904?window=7d) | 1,490 | 93.86% ±52.5 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904) | 1,496 | 93.49% ±52.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/904?window=all) | 1,496 | 93.49% ±52.4 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,496 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,194 5,031 HUNT\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $557 877 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $367 577 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $250 394 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $140 221 HUNT\_COIN | 6.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $114 180 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $40.29 63.45 HUNT\_COIN | 3.6% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.34× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $25.38 39.98 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 6 | 7.5 | 0.80× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $21.68 34.14 HUNT\_COIN | 9.7% | 22 | 15.0 | 1.47× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $17.40 27.41 HUNT\_COIN | 15.6% | 37 | 29.9 | 1.24× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.89 25.02 HUNT\_COIN | 14.2% | 25 | 29.9 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $9.31 14.67 HUNT\_COIN | 16.7% | 68 | 59.8 | 1.14× | | [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 1,325 | 1346.4 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $250 394 HUNT\_COIN 99.18x 2026-11-07 18:21 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Terracidre](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Terracidre) $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $140 221 HUNT\_COIN 55.60x 2026-11-10 06:08 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $140 221 HUNT\_COIN 55.60x 2026-11-06 04:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=904) [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) [Leva\_alt2](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Leva_alt2) $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 16:02 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 16:02 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $21.68 34.14 HUNT\_COIN 8.60x 2026-11-10 16:02 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $2.52 3.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 16:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.52 | 88.66% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.0% covert 4.2% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.1% Mythical 0.2% violet 0.5% blue 2.0% gray 90.0% best hit $250 (99.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.66 on average: an expected loss of $11.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt