--- title: "10% Hydra Chance case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Hydra Chance ($20.35) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.36% from 9 items with odds, observed 51.09% over 140 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Hydra Chance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Hydra Chance A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922?window=all) Price · $20.35 · 32.05 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.36% · EV $17.78 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.09% · 140 openings, odds method Variance · 39.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 56 openings · below min 30 days · 140 openings · below min since tracking started · 140 openings · below min -0.5% 252.8% 506.0% **Small sample.** 140 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922?window=24h) | 6 | 0.06% ±505.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922?window=7d) | 56 | 65.76% ±165.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922) | 140 | 51.09% ±104.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/922?window=all) | 140 | 51.09% ±104.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,594 4,086 HUNT\_COIN | 29.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $708 1,116 HUNT\_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $416 656 HUNT\_COIN | 11.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $209 330 HUNT\_COIN | 11.8% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $146 230 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [Sticker \| Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) | 1 in 100 | $82.72 130 HUNT\_COIN | 4.7% | 7 | 2.8 | 2.54× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $69.30 109 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $65.97 104 HUNT\_COIN | 18.6% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× | | [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 244 | 248.4 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=922) [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $65.97 104 HUNT\_COIN 3.24x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $209 330 HUNT\_COIN 10.29x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.35 32.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $20.35 | 87.36% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% Covert 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% exotic 1.0% pink 5.0% Consumer Grade 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.36 on average: an expected loss of $12.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt