---
title: "lucky knife case case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "lucky knife case ($3.56) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 5 items with odds, observed 117.56% over 190 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [lucky knife case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · lucky knife case

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931?window=all)

Price · $3.56 · 5.6 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $3.11 from 5 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 117.56% · 190 openings, odds method

Variance · 35.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 124 openings · below min

30 days · 190 openings · below min

since tracking started · 190 openings · below min

15.0% 120.0% 225.0%

**Small sample.** 190 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931?window=7d) | 124 | 119.89% ±104.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931) | 190 | 117.56% ±84.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/931?window=all) | 190 | 117.56% ±84.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 190 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $191 301 HUNT\_COIN | 61.5% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $89.47 141 HUNT\_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $71.61 113 HUNT\_COIN | 11.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 11.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) | 97.5% | $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 184 | 185.3 | 0.99× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $191 301 HUNT\_COIN 53.75x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $191 301 HUNT\_COIN 53.75x 2026-11-07 04:12 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $191 301 HUNT\_COIN 53.75x 2026-11-04 08:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=931)

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $191 301 HUNT\_COIN 53.75x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

[Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.56 5.6 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.56 | 87.39% | 5 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 1.0% covert 1.0% covert knife 0.5% high 97.5% best hit $191 (53.75x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt