--- title: "20% knife case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "20% knife ($1.70) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.61% from 9 items with odds, observed 101.15% over 2,126 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [20% knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 20% knife A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950?window=all) Price · $1.70 · 2.67 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.61% · EV $1.49 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.15% · 2,126 openings, odds method Variance · 18.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 101.38% ±18.34 2,109 openings 30 days · 101.15% ±18.27 2,126 openings since tracking started · 101.15% ±18.27 2,126 openings 82.0% 101.3% 120.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950?window=7d) | 2,109 | 101.38% ±18.3 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950) | 2,126 | 101.15% ±18.3 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/950?window=all) | 2,126 | 101.15% ±18.3 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,126 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 46.8% | 29 | 21.3 | 1.36× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $18.41 28.99 HUNT\_COIN | 12.4% | 19 | 21.3 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Lucky 13 (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-13-foil) | 1 in 100 | $9.03 14.23 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 22 | 21.3 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 1 in 100 | $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 19 | 21.3 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $7.56 11.91 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 21 | 21.3 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) | 1 in 100 | $7.49 11.79 HUNT\_COIN | 5.0% | 14 | 21.3 | 0.66× | | [Sticker \| Dust FA (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dust-fa-foil) | 1 in 20 | $4.73 7.45 HUNT\_COIN | 15.9% | 118 | 106.3 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| Easy Peasy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-easy-peasy) | 1 in 11 | $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 199 | 191.3 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 1,685 | 1700.8 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=950) [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Easy Peasy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-easy-peasy) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Easy Peasy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-easy-peasy) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Easy Peasy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-easy-peasy) [Nopejustbot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Nopejustbot) $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Easy Peasy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-easy-peasy) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC [Sticker | Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) Hidden $1.70 2.67 HUNT\_COIN $7.49 11.79 HUNT\_COIN 4.42x 2026-11-10 07:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.70 | 87.61% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% Exotic 1.0% exotic 1.0% classified 1.0% Mythical 1.0% Legendary 5.0% #4b69ff 9.0% other 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.61 on average: an expected loss of $12.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt