--- title: "1% KNIFE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% KNIFE JOKER ($127.99) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 79.11% over 430 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T13:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [1% KNIFE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · 1% KNIFE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker?window=all) Price · $127.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 79.11% · 430 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 46 openings · below min 7 days · 286 openings · below min 30 days · 430 openings · below min since tracking started · 430 openings · below min 61.5% 98.8% 136.0% **Small sample.** 430 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker?window=24h) | 46 | 98.61% ±36.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker?window=7d) | 286 | 79.57% ±14.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker) | 430 | 79.11% ±11.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife-joker?window=all) | 430 | 79.11% ±11.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=1-knife-joker) [★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $124 $188 1.52x 2026-11-12 13:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $123 $398 3.25x 2026-11-12 13:12 UTC [★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $123 $196 1.60x 2026-11-12 13:12 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $124 $46.81 0.38x 2026-11-12 13:12 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $123 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $123 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $123 $398 3.25x 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) Hidden $123 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) Hidden $123 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $123 $49.00 0.40x 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 79.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $79.11 on average: an expected loss of $20.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt