---
title: "1% KNIFE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "1% KNIFE ($1.75) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 6 items with odds, observed 96.27% over 38.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [1% KNIFE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · 1% KNIFE

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife?window=all)

Price · $1.75

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $1.53 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.27% · 38.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 105.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 253 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 98.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.46% ±33.26 4,050 openings

7 days · 106.36% ±13.23 29.2K openings

30 days · 96.27% ±11.56 38.6K openings

since tracking started · 96.27% ±11.56 38.6K openings

44.5% 82.3% 120.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife?window=24h) | 4,050 | 78.46% ±33.3 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife?window=7d) | 29.2K | 106.36% ±13.2 | +2.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife) | 38.6K | 96.27% ±11.6 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-knife?window=all) | 38.6K | 96.27% ±11.6 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 813 | $412 | 33.1% | 70 | 47.5 | 1.47× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 368 | $185 | 32.8% | 132 | 105.0 | 1.26× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $48.14 | 32.9% | 215 | 403.4 | 0.53× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) | 32.9% | $0.02 | 0.4% | 12,813 | 12682.8 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) | 32.9% | $0.02 | 0.4% | 12,693 | 12683.6 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 32.9% | $0.02 | 0.4% | 12,683 | 12683.6 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/1-knife`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $430 245.6x 2026-11-03 01:50 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) [Luis Miguel](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luis%20Miguel) $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-05 06:37 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 23:34 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 17:47 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 17:42 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 17:41 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 17:36 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 17:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 04:10 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $426 243.6x 2026-11-04 01:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=1-knife)

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) [Groot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Groot) $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) [Groot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Groot) $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) [Stay Clean](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Stay%20Clean) $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) [Stay Clean](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Stay%20Clean) $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) [gustp14](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gustp14) $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) [gustp14](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gustp14) $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) Hidden $1.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $1.75 | 87.51% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.75 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.75 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.75 | 87.59% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.75 | 87.61% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.75 | 87.45% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.75 | 87.85% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.75 | 87.54% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.75 | 87.67% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.75 | 87.89% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.75 | 87.69% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.75 | 87.47% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.75 | 87.88% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.75 | 87.68% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.75 | 87.13% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.75 | 87.82% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.75 | 87.45% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.75 | 87.67% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.2% gold 0.3% gray 98.6% best hit $430 (245.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt