--- title: "1% PROFIT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% PROFIT ($0.70) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 5 items with odds, observed 76.92% over 48.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [1% PROFIT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · 1% PROFIT A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit?window=all) Price · $0.70 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.61 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.92% · 48.6K openings, odds method Variance · 94.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 151 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.09% ±22.59 7,274 openings 7 days · 77.29% ±9.77 39.9K openings 30 days · 76.92% ±8.84 48.6K openings since tracking started · 76.92% ±8.84 48.6K openings 65.0% 88.3% 111.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (68.08% – 85.75%, 48,614 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit?window=24h) | 7,274 | 88.09% ±22.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit?window=7d) | 39.9K | 77.29% ±9.77 | −2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit) | 48.6K | 76.92% ±8.84 | −2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/1-profit?window=all) | 48.6K | 76.92% ±8.84 | −2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,163 | $172 | 24.2% | 42 | 41.9 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 389 | $58.10 | 24.4% | 94 | 125.1 | 0.75× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 312 | $46.10 | 24.2% | 148 | 156.3 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 268 | $39.44 | 24.0% | 146 | 181.6 | 0.80× | | [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 99.0% | $0.02 | 3.2% | 48,258 | 48183.1 | 1.00× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/1-profit`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $0.70 $178 254.8x 2026-11-06 01:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [AVATAR DAYI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AVATAR%20DAYI) $0.70 $178 254.8x 2026-11-06 00:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [AVATAR DAYI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AVATAR%20DAYI) $0.70 $178 254.8x 2026-11-06 00:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [JAVIELT0CHITO SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JAVIELT0CHITO%20SKINS) $0.70 $177 252.2x 2026-11-07 07:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [JAVIELT0CHITO SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JAVIELT0CHITO%20SKINS) $0.70 $177 252.2x 2026-11-07 07:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [OmeCash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OmeCash) $0.70 $177 252.2x 2026-11-07 06:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [OmeCash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OmeCash) $0.70 $177 252.2x 2026-11-07 06:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.70 $177 252.2x 2026-11-07 02:15 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.70 $177 252.2x 2026-11-06 20:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [Luffy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luffy) $0.70 $177 252.2x 2026-11-06 18:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=1-profit) [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Luiz Jácinto Leite Cápelo Rego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luiz%20J%C3%A1cinto%20Leite%20C%C3%A1pelo%20Rego) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Luiz Jácinto Leite Cápelo Rego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luiz%20J%C3%A1cinto%20Leite%20C%C3%A1pelo%20Rego) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $0.70 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.70 | 87.50% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.70 | 87.39% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.70 | 86.79% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.70 | 87.01% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.70 | 87.66% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.70 | 86.58% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.70 | 86.78% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.70 | 87.39% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.70 | 87.59% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.70 | 86.72% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.70 | 87.53% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.70 | 87.13% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.70 | 87.50% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.70 | 87.01% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.70 | 86.98% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.70 | 87.39% | 5 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.70 | 87.28% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed red 0.1% Ancient 0.6% Covert 0.3% gray 99.0% best hit $178 (254.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt