--- title: "ADRENALINE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ADRENALINE JOKER ($166.57) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.04% over 1,262 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ADRENALINE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ADRENALINE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker?window=all) Price · $166.57 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.04% · 1,262 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 257 openings · below min 7 days · 89.41% ±6.36 1,008 openings 30 days · 86.04% ±5.66 1,262 openings since tracking started · 86.04% ±5.66 1,262 openings 71.5% 84.3% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker?window=24h) | 257 | 84.30% ±12.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker?window=7d) | 1,008 | 89.41% ±6.36 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker) | 1,262 | 86.04% ±5.66 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline-joker?window=all) | 1,262 | 86.04% ±5.66 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=adrenaline-joker) [Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [♛-EL GALII -♰](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9B-EL%20GALII%20-%E2%99%B0) $162 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) Hidden $161 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $161 $204 1.27x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) Hidden $161 $7.97 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [♛-EL GALII -♰](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9B-EL%20GALII%20-%E2%99%B0) $161 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [♛-EL GALII -♰](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9B-EL%20GALII%20-%E2%99%B0) $162 $7.55 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) Hidden $161 $9.66 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $161 $476 2.96x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $161 $204 1.27x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [♛-EL GALII -♰](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9B-EL%20GALII%20-%E2%99%B0) $161 $7.97 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.04 on average: an expected loss of $13.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt