---
title: "ADRENALINE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ADRENALINE ($7.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 81.67% over 15.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ADRENALINE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ADRENALINE

A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $6.12 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.67% · 15.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 20.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 60 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.15% ±18.68 2,206 openings

7 days · 82.56% ±7.48 13.8K openings

30 days · 81.67% ±6.98 15.9K openings

since tracking started · 81.67% ±6.98 15.9K openings

58.0% 77.3% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline?window=24h) | 2,206 | 77.15% ±18.7 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline?window=7d) | 13.8K | 82.56% ±7.48 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline) | 15.9K | 81.67% ±6.98 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/adrenaline?window=all) | 15.9K | 81.67% ±6.98 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $478 | 19.5% | 32 | 39.9 | 0.80× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $205 | 19.8% | 85 | 94.1 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $144 | 19.8% | 130 | 133.9 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 11.1% | $10.77 | 19.6% | 1,909 | 1775.8 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 15.2% | $7.93 | 19.6% | 2,359 | 2415.1 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 72.0% | $0.15 | 1.8% | 11,426 | 11482.3 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/adrenaline`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-10 13:50 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-09 20:41 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-09 20:16 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-09 20:08 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-09 20:08 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [Hűtő M. Ágnes titkárnő](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/H%C5%B1t%C5%91%20M.%20%C3%81gnes%20titk%C3%A1rn%C5%91) $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-08 08:23 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [Hűtő M. Ágnes titkárnő](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/H%C5%B1t%C5%91%20M.%20%C3%81gnes%20titk%C3%A1rn%C5%91) $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-08 08:21 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-08 05:49 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-08 00:12 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $478 68.23x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=adrenaline)

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [Negan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Negan) $7.00 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [c0c0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/c0c0) $7.00 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [Negan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Negan) $7.00 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [c0c0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/c0c0) $7.00 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [Negan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Negan) $7.00 $7.93 1.13x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [c0c0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/c0c0) $7.00 $10.77 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [Negan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Negan) $7.00 $10.77 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [c0c0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/c0c0) $7.00 $10.77 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [Negan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Negan) $7.00 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [c0c0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/c0c0) $7.00 $10.77 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $7.00 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $7.00 | 87.56% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $7.00 | 87.04% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.00 | 87.48% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $7.00 | 87.88% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.00 | 87.27% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $7.00 | 87.33% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $7.00 | 87.88% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.23% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $7.00 | 87.14% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $7.00 | 87.46% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $7.00 | 88.09% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.00 | 88.11% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.00 | 87.52% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $7.00 | 87.04% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.55% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.00 | 87.67% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% pink 11.1% #d32ce6 15.2% blue 72.0% best hit $478 (68.23x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt