---
title: "AGENT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AGENT ($30.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 63 items with odds, observed 84.48% over 4,241 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AGENT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AGENT

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent?window=all)

Price · $30.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $26.25 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.48% · 4,241 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.84% ±7.15 383 openings

7 days · 84.94% ±2.40 3,457 openings

30 days · 84.48% ±2.18 4,241 openings

since tracking started · 84.48% ±2.18 4,241 openings

73.0% 80.8% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.30% – 86.65%, 4,241 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent?window=24h) | 383 | 80.84% ±7.15 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent?window=7d) | 3,457 | 84.94% ±2.40 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent) | 4,241 | 84.48% ±2.18 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/agent?window=all) | 4,241 | 84.48% ±2.18 | −2.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,258 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sir Bloody Miami Darryl \| The Professionals agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-miami-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 67 | $88.86 | 5.1% | 63 | 63.9 | 0.99× |
| [D Squadron Officer \| NZSAS agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/d-squadron-officer-nzsas) | 1 in 63 | $83.29 | 5.1% | 73 | 68.1 | 1.07× |
| [Getaway Sally \| The Professionals agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/getaway-sally-the-professionals) | 1 in 61 | $81.84 | 5.1% | 72 | 69.4 | 1.04× |
| [Primeiro Tenente \| Brazilian 1st Battalion agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/primeiro-tenente-brazilian-1st-battalion) | 1 in 58 | $76.89 | 5.1% | 54 | 73.7 | 0.73× |
| [Sir Bloody Loudmouth Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-loudmouth-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 50 | $66.14 | 5.0% | 60 | 84.7 | 0.71× |
| [Number K \| The Professionals agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/number-k-the-professionals) | 1 in 44 | $58.24 | 5.0% | 57 | 96.2 | 0.59× |
| [Cmdr. Frank 'Wet Sox' Baroud \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-frank-wet-sox-baroud-seal-frogman) | 1 in 36 | $46.89 | 5.0% | 94 | 119.6 | 0.79× |
| [Vypa Sista of the Revolution \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/vypa-sista-of-the-revolution-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 35 | $46.42 | 5.0% | 97 | 120.9 | 0.80× |
| [Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-davida-goggles-fernandez-seal-frogman) | 1 in 35 | $46.13 | 5.0% | 108 | 121.4 | 0.89× |
| [Sir Bloody Darryl Royale \| The Professionals agent · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-darryl-royale-the-professionals) | 1 in 47 | $43.93 | 3.6% | 88 | 90.7 | 0.97× |
| [Sir Bloody Skullhead Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-skullhead-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 44 | $41.54 | 3.6% | 108 | 96.2 | 1.12× |
| [Sir Bloody Silent Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-silent-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 43 | $40.79 | 3.6% | 123 | 97.9 | 1.26× |
| [Trapper \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 40 | $37.00 | 3.6% | 112 | 107.7 | 1.04× |
| [Bloody Darryl The Strapped \| The Professionals agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloody-darryl-the-strapped-the-professionals) | 1 in 38 | $35.56 | 3.6% | 126 | 112.4 | 1.12× |
| [Trapper Aggressor \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-aggressor-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 33 | $30.98 | 3.6% | 124 | 129.0 | 0.96× |
| [Elite Trapper Solman \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/elite-trapper-solman-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 33 | $30.70 | 3.6% | 114 | 129.9 | 0.88× |
| [Little Kev \| The Professionals agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/little-kev-the-professionals) | 1 in 105 | $28.93 | 1.0% | 37 | 40.5 | 0.91× |
| [Col. Mangos Dabisi \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/col-mangos-dabisi-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 106 | $28.18 | 1.0% | 47 | 40.0 | 1.17× |
| ['Medium Rare' Crasswater \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · Master](https://gambatracker.com/items/medium-rare-crasswater-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 106 | $28.12 | 1.0% | 34 | 40.0 | 0.85× |
| [Jungle Rebel \| Elite Crew agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/jungle-rebel-elite-crew) | 1 in 100 | $24.13 | 0.9% | 44 | 42.6 | 1.03× |
| [Chem-Haz Capitaine \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-capitaine-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 98 | $22.71 | 0.9% | 48 | 43.4 | 1.11× |
| [Special Agent Ava \| FBI agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/special-agent-ava-fbi) | 1 in 96 | $21.83 | 0.9% | 44 | 44.3 | 0.99× |
| [Chef d'Escadron Rouchard \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/chef-descadron-rouchard-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 95 | $21.28 | 0.9% | 42 | 44.7 | 0.94× |
| [Crasswater The Forgotten \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/crasswater-the-forgotten-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 93 | $20.54 | 0.8% | 39 | 45.6 | 0.86× |
| [Safecracker Voltzmann \| The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) | 1 in 90 | $18.68 | 0.8% | 49 | 47.3 | 1.04× |
| [Officer Jacques Beltram \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/officer-jacques-beltram-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 90 | $18.55 | 0.8% | 38 | 47.3 | 0.80× |
| [Lieutenant Rex Krikey \| SEAL Frogman agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/lieutenant-rex-krikey-seal-frogman) | 1 in 89 | $18.00 | 0.8% | 54 | 47.7 | 1.13× |
| [Lt. Commander Ricksaw \| NSWC SEAL agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/lt-commander-ricksaw-nswc-seal) | 1 in 85 | $16.26 | 0.7% | 39 | 49.8 | 0.78× |
| [Sergeant Bombson \| SWAT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sergeant-bombson-swat) | 1 in 85 | $16.10 | 0.7% | 58 | 50.2 | 1.15× |
| [Cmdr. Mae 'Dead Cold' Jamison \| SWAT agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-mae-dead-cold-jamison-swat) | 1 in 85 | $15.84 | 0.7% | 49 | 50.2 | 0.98× |
| [Arno The Overgrown \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/arno-the-overgrown-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 83 | $15.07 | 0.7% | 49 | 51.5 | 0.95× |
| [Lieutenant 'Tree Hugger' Farlow \| SWAT agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/lieutenant-tree-hugger-farlow-swat) | 1 in 81 | $14.47 | 0.7% | 38 | 52.4 | 0.73× |
| [Street Soldier \| Phoenix agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/street-soldier-phoenix) | 1 in 81 | $14.42 | 0.7% | 44 | 52.4 | 0.84× |
| ['Blueberries' Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) | 1 in 79 | $13.45 | 0.6% | 59 | 53.7 | 1.10× |
| [3rd Commando Company \| KSK agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/3rd-commando-company-ksk) | 1 in 79 | $13.21 | 0.6% | 52 | 54.1 | 0.96× |
| [Seal Team 6 Soldier \| NSWC SEAL agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/seal-team-6-soldier-nswc-seal) | 1 in 78 | $12.77 | 0.6% | 49 | 54.9 | 0.89× |
| [Bio-Haz Specialist \| SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/bio-haz-specialist-swat) | 1 in 76 | $12.17 | 0.6% | 63 | 55.8 | 1.13× |
| ['The Doctor' Romanov \| Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) | 1 in 75 | $11.87 | 0.6% | 72 | 56.6 | 1.27× |
| [Operator \| FBI SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/operator-fbi-swat) | 1 in 75 | $11.87 | 0.6% | 58 | 56.6 | 1.02× |
| [Michael Syfers \| FBI Sniper agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/michael-syfers-fbi-sniper) | 1 in 75 | $11.77 | 0.6% | 69 | 56.6 | 1.22× |
| [Chem-Haz Specialist \| SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-specialist-swat) | 1 in 74 | $11.37 | 0.6% | 61 | 57.5 | 1.06× |
| [Ground Rebel \| Elite Crew agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ground-rebel-elite-crew) | 1 in 74 | $11.37 | 0.6% | 58 | 57.5 | 1.01× |
| [The Elite Mr. Muhlik \| Elite Crew agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-elite-mr-muhlik-elite-crew) | 1 in 74 | $11.18 | 0.6% | 63 | 57.9 | 1.09× |
| [Sous-Lieutenant Medic \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/sous-lieutenant-medic-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 74 | $11.11 | 0.6% | 68 | 57.9 | 1.17× |
| [John 'Van Healen' Kask \| SWAT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/john-van-healen-kask-swat) | 1 in 73 | $11.01 | 0.6% | 63 | 58.3 | 1.08× |
| [Aspirant \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/aspirant-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 71 | $10.43 | 0.6% | 62 | 59.6 | 1.04× |
| [Osiris \| Elite Crew agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/osiris-elite-crew) | 1 in 71 | $10.33 | 0.6% | 50 | 59.6 | 0.84× |
| [1st Lieutenant Farlow \| SWAT agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/1st-lieutenant-farlow-swat) | 1 in 69 | $9.72 | 0.5% | 66 | 61.3 | 1.08× |
| [Markus Delrow \| FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) | 1 in 68 | $9.00 | 0.5% | 82 | 63.0 | 1.30× |
| [B Squadron Officer \| SAS agent · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/b-squadron-officer-sas) | 1 in 67 | $8.76 | 0.5% | 69 | 63.9 | 1.08× |
| ['Two Times' McCoy \| TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) | 1 in 66 | $8.65 | 0.5% | 81 | 64.3 | 1.26× |
| [Dragomir \| Sabre Footsoldier agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dragomir-sabre-footsoldier) | 1 in 66 | $8.41 | 0.5% | 71 | 64.7 | 1.10× |
| [Slingshot \| Phoenix agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/slingshot-phoenix) | 1 in 65 | $8.04 | 0.5% | 59 | 66.0 | 0.89× |
| ['Two Times' McCoy \| USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) | 1 in 64 | $7.88 | 0.5% | 54 | 66.4 | 0.81× |
| [Prof. Shahmat \| Elite Crew agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/prof-shahmat-elite-crew) | 1 in 63 | $7.70 | 0.5% | 61 | 67.3 | 0.91× |
| [Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/buckshot-nswc-seal) | 1 in 63 | $7.59 | 0.5% | 74 | 67.7 | 1.09× |
| [Rezan the Redshirt \| Sabre agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/rezan-the-redshirt-sabre) | 1 in 63 | $7.50 | 0.5% | 82 | 68.1 | 1.20× |
| [Blackwolf \| Sabre agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/blackwolf-sabre) | 1 in 62 | $7.22 | 0.4% | 81 | 69.0 | 1.17× |
| [Rezan The Ready \| Sabre agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/rezan-the-ready-sabre) | 1 in 61 | $7.16 | 0.4% | 74 | 69.4 | 1.07× |
| [Dragomir \| Sabre agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dragomir-sabre) | 1 in 59 | $6.44 | 0.4% | 62 | 72.4 | 0.86× |
| [Maximus \| Sabre agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/maximus-sabre) | 1 in 58 | $6.21 | 0.4% | 89 | 73.2 | 1.22× |
| [Enforcer \| Phoenix agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/enforcer-phoenix) | 1 in 56 | $5.75 | 0.4% | 82 | 75.8 | 1.08× |
| [Soldier \| Phoenix agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/soldier-phoenix) | 1 in 55 | $5.34 | 0.4% | 98 | 77.1 | 1.27× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/agent`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=agent)

['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $30.00 $8.65 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[Trapper | Guerrilla Warfare agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $30.00 $36.98 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sir Bloody Skullhead Darryl | The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-skullhead-darryl-the-professionals) Hidden $30.00 $39.35 1.31x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Buckshot | NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/buckshot-nswc-seal) Hidden $30.00 $7.67 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $30.00 $8.68 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Chem-Haz Capitaine | Gendarmerie Nationale agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-capitaine-gendarmerie-nationale) [✪Reqlest](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AAReqlest) $30.00 $22.71 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[Primeiro Tenente | Brazilian 1st Battalion agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/primeiro-tenente-brazilian-1st-battalion) [✪Reqlest](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AAReqlest) $30.00 $76.89 2.56x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) [✪Reqlest](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AAReqlest) $30.00 $8.65 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[Soldier | Phoenix agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/soldier-phoenix) [✪Reqlest](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AAReqlest) $30.00 $5.34 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[Officer Jacques Beltram | Gendarmerie Nationale agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/officer-jacques-beltram-gendarmerie-nationale) [✪Reqlest](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AAReqlest) $30.00 $18.55 0.62x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $30.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $30.00 | 87.56% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $30.00 | 87.61% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $30.00 | 87.58% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $30.00 | 87.34% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $30.00 | 87.31% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $30.00 | 87.49% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $30.00 | 87.32% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.67% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $30.00 | 87.66% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $30.00 | 87.36% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $30.00 | 87.47% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $30.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $30.00 | 87.42% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $30.00 | 87.46% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.57% | 63 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.00 | 87.67% | 63 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed master 6.0% distinguished 9.9% exceptional 9.1% red 18.7% superior 12.4% Ancient 2.1% pink 12.3% violet 13.9% Master 0.9% blue 13.1% #4b69ff 1.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt