---
title: "AINE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AINE ($60.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 25 items with odds, observed 84.88% over 1,577 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AINE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AINE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine?window=all)

Price · $60.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $52.50 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.88% · 1,577 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71.33% ±25.82 237 openings

7 days · 85.61% ±10.73 1,394 openings

30 days · 84.88% ±10.10 1,577 openings

since tracking started · 84.88% ±10.10 1,577 openings

45.0% 71.5% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine?window=24h) | 237 | 71.33% ±25.8 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine?window=7d) | 1,394 | 85.61% ±10.7 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine) | 1,577 | 84.88% ±10.1 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aine?window=all) | 1,577 | 84.88% ±10.1 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,577 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $8,833 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,559 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,256 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 274 | $1,109 | 7.7% | 2 | 5.8 | 0.35× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 124 | $499 | 7.7% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 105 | $423 | 7.7% | 16 | 15.0 | 1.06× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 81 | $327 | 7.7% | 16 | 19.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $312 | 7.7% | 15 | 20.4 | 0.73× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 59 | $237 | 7.7% | 28 | 26.8 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 217 | $214 | 1.9% | 1 | 7.3 | 0.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $209 | 2.4% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $207 | 2.4% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $190 | 2.2% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 114 | $172 | 2.9% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $164 | 2.5% | 4 | 12.4 | 0.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $153 | 2.7% | 5 | 14.5 | 0.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $145 | 2.8% | 20 | 16.3 | 1.23× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $132 | 7.7% | 59 | 48.3 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $119 | 3.4% | 18 | 23.3 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $117 | 3.8% | 24 | 26.9 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $115 | 3.9% | 21 | 27.8 | 0.75× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $68.49 | 7.7% | 106 | 92.9 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $44.77 | 3.2% | 59 | 59.2 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.63 | 3.1% | 70 | 63.1 | 1.11× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) | 66.1% | $0.38 | 0.5% | 1,033 | 1042.0 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/aine`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $60.00 $2,380 39.66x 2026-11-04 20:02 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $60.00 $1,124 18.73x 2026-11-09 21:11 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $60.00 $1,097 18.29x 2026-11-04 15:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $60.00 $517 8.62x 2026-11-05 15:35 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Catzen](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Catzen) $60.00 $516 8.59x 2026-11-06 18:43 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $60.00 $516 8.59x 2026-11-06 18:42 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Catzen](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Catzen) $60.00 $516 8.59x 2026-11-06 18:42 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $60.00 $515 8.59x 2026-11-04 20:03 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $60.00 $515 8.59x 2026-11-04 20:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $60.00 $515 8.59x 2026-11-04 15:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=aine)

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) [Rato](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Rato) $60.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $60.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $60.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $60.00 $0.39 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 $207 3.46x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $60.00 $67.63 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) Hidden $60.00 $119 1.98x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $60.00 $67.63 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $60.00 $137 2.28x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $60.00 $0.39 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $60.00 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $60.00 | 87.47% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $60.00 | 87.39% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $60.00 | 87.35% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $60.00 | 87.65% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $60.00 | 87.75% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $60.00 | 87.59% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $60.00 | 87.53% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $60.00 | 87.74% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $60.00 | 87.90% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $60.00 | 87.49% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $60.00 | 87.44% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $60.00 | 87.41% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $60.00 | 87.48% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $60.00 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $60.00 | 87.56% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $60.00 | 87.70% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $60.00 | 87.30% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.9% extraordinary 0.0% epic 1.3% gold 10.7% red 0.9% classified 3.5% restricted 3.8% rare 4.0% milspec 66.1% best hit $2,380 (39.66x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt