--- title: "AK-47 JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AK-47 JOKER ($272.48) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.04% over 1,164 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AK-47 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AK-47 JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker?window=all) Price · $272.48 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.04% · 1,164 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 109 openings · below min 7 days · 87.31% ±17.79 1,060 openings 30 days · 89.04% ±17.44 1,164 openings since tracking started · 89.04% ±17.44 1,164 openings 18.0% 70.5% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker?window=24h) | 109 | 70.35% ±51.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker?window=7d) | 1,060 | 87.31% ±17.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker) | 1,164 | 89.04% ±17.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47-joker?window=all) | 1,164 | 89.04% ±17.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $283 $5,931 20.96x 2026-11-10 10:14 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $283 $5,931 20.96x 2026-11-10 10:08 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [lmeeent](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/lmeeent) $283 $5,931 20.96x 2026-11-09 18:28 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $279 $5,749 20.63x 2026-11-08 10:21 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $279 $5,749 20.63x 2026-11-08 10:20 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $273 $5,557 20.38x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $273 $5,557 20.38x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $274 $5,557 20.32x 2026-11-10 11:58 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $274 $5,557 20.32x 2026-11-10 10:12 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $274 $5,557 20.32x 2026-11-10 10:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ak-47-joker) [AK-47 | Wintergreen weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $283 $2.40 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $273 $4.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $273 $16.08 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $273 $5.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) Hidden $273 $9.72 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) Hidden $273 $9.72 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $273 $17.79 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe) [TraficanteDeAlfajores](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TraficanteDeAlfajores) $283 $4.52 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $273 $15.37 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $273 $5,557 20.38x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,931 (20.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.04 on average: an expected loss of $10.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt