---
title: "AK-47 case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AK-47 ($3.94) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 109 items with odds, observed 82.05% over 15.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AK-47](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AK-47

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47?window=all)

Price · $3.94

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.45 from 109 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.05% · 15.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 25.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.97% ±23.41 1,791 openings

7 days · 81.93% ±8.75 13.3K openings

30 days · 82.05% ±7.95 15.9K openings

since tracking started · 82.05% ±7.95 15.9K openings

60.0% 84.0% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47?window=24h) | 1,791 | 83.97% ±23.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47?window=7d) | 13.3K | 81.93% ±8.75 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47) | 15.9K | 82.05% ±7.95 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ak-47?window=all) | 15.9K | 82.05% ±7.95 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 109 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,557 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,888 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,027 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $706 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $441 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $338 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $307 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $214 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $214 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $187 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $180 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $170 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $145 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $137 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $129 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $116 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $111 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $111 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $101 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $98.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $97.20 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $92.38 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $87.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $85.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $73.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $60.01 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $54.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $53.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $50.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $43.45 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $42.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $41.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $39.35 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $38.55 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $33.60 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $30.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $26.79 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $20.29 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $19.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $17.89 | 0.1% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $17.55 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $16.58 | 0.1% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 3,448 | $15.31 | 0.1% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 242 | $13.67 | 1.6% | 35 | 66.1 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $13.09 | 1.7% | 36 | 72.0 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 238 | $12.97 | 1.6% | 47 | 67.1 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $11.78 | 0.3% | 5 | 13.1 | 0.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $10.77 | 1.2% | 39 | 61.3 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 161 | $10.65 | 1.9% | 54 | 99.5 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 210 | $9.66 | 1.3% | 44 | 76.2 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 225 | $9.23 | 1.2% | 34 | 70.9 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $8.47 | 1.3% | 32 | 82.7 | 0.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $8.26 | 1.2% | 36 | 78.4 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 275 | $7.90 | 0.8% | 27 | 58.0 | 0.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $7.78 | 1.1% | 24 | 76.8 | 0.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166 | $7.26 | 1.3% | 45 | 96.0 | 0.47× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $7.02 | 2.3% | 73 | 182.4 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $6.84 | 2.4% | 84 | 192.2 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $6.76 | 2.6% | 110 | 213.7 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $6.59 | 2.0% | 70 | 163.3 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $6.54 | 2.0% | 74 | 165.8 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $6.25 | 2.6% | 115 | 230.2 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $6.22 | 2.1% | 61 | 183.2 | 0.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $5.81 | 1.6% | 99 | 150.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 171 | $5.80 | 1.0% | 61 | 93.3 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 162 | $5.59 | 1.0% | 58 | 98.7 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 170 | $5.44 | 0.9% | 69 | 93.9 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $5.30 | 1.1% | 52 | 109.9 | 0.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $5.29 | 1.1% | 44 | 112.1 | 0.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $5.16 | 1.1% | 64 | 115.8 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 129 | $5.04 | 1.1% | 75 | 123.5 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $4.67 | 1.0% | 89 | 120.6 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 287 | $4.64 | 0.5% | 27 | 55.6 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 394 | $4.63 | 0.3% | 20 | 40.6 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 129 | $4.61 | 1.0% | 84 | 123.6 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $4.60 | 1.6% | 100 | 194.9 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 117 | $4.50 | 1.1% | 78 | 137.1 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $4.38 | 1.2% | 74 | 144.7 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $4.37 | 1.1% | 72 | 137.7 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 224 | $4.26 | 0.6% | 37 | 71.2 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $4.21 | 1.0% | 72 | 136.1 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $3.97 | 1.1% | 84 | 152.9 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $3.97 | 1.1% | 68 | 152.9 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $3.81 | 1.2% | 92 | 180.2 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $3.54 | 1.2% | 121 | 188.8 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.44 | 4.1% | 384 | 653.8 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.26 | 1.9% | 198 | 322.7 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $3.25 | 1.9% | 163 | 324.3 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $3.25 | 1.2% | 116 | 206.2 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $2.67 | 2.1% | 247 | 435.5 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $2.59 | 1.4% | 163 | 289.6 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.54 | 1.5% | 176 | 322.2 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $2.42 | 1.4% | 178 | 320.9 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $2.39 | 1.4% | 183 | 331.5 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $2.31 | 1.4% | 183 | 343.9 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $2.22 | 1.6% | 190 | 394.4 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $2.22 | 1.5% | 211 | 380.0 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $2.17 | 1.6% | 214 | 408.1 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $2.17 | 1.5% | 216 | 393.1 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $2.14 | 0.5% | 81 | 131.1 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $2.03 | 1.6% | 250 | 434.5 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $1.91 | 1.6% | 232 | 463.9 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $1.90 | 1.6% | 266 | 467.6 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $1.86 | 1.2% | 264 | 345.4 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1.04 | 0.7% | 214 | 386.9 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.92 | 0.8% | 291 | 464.8 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.77 | 0.8% | 328 | 607.2 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.74 | 0.9% | 346 | 644.4 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 11.7% | $0.60 | 2.0% | 798 | 1868.2 | 0.43× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/ak-47`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ak-47)

[AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [MATURRO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MATURRO) $3.94 $2.25 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate) [xEq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xEq) $3.94 $3.27 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate) [xEq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xEq) $3.94 $5.31 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted) [xEq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xEq) $3.94 $0.92 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen) [xEq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xEq) $3.94 $0.87 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Crossfade weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade) [xEq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xEq) $3.94 $2.67 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $3.94 $0.92 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $3.94 $6.67 1.69x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta) [PAU HENRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PAU%20HENRY) $3.94 $2.33 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted) [PAU HENRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PAU%20HENRY) $3.94 $0.92 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.94 | 87.50% | 109 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.94 | 87.49% | 109 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.94 | 87.51% | 109 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.94 | 87.75% | 109 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.94 | 87.75% | 109 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.94 | 88.23% | 109 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.94 | 88.16% | 109 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.94 | 87.56% | 109 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.94 | 87.31% | 109 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.94 | 87.93% | 109 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.94 | 87.76% | 109 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.94 | 87.60% | 109 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.94 | 87.58% | 109 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.94 | 87.63% | 109 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.94 | 87.87% | 109 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.94 | 88.22% | 109 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.94 | 88.29% | 109 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% classified 1.3% red 0.9% pink 8.0% restricted 14.9% rare 1.1% mil spec 9.1% Ancient 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% Mythical 5.5% Legendary 1.6% industrial 1.4% #d32ce6 1.9% #d32ee6 1.8% Classified 0.6% violet 5.5% #4b69ff 12.0% blue 13.6% Uncommon 0.9% light blue 1.0% milspec 4.0% Rare 10.8% common 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt