---
title: "AL FRESCO case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AL FRESCO ($2.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 35 items with odds, observed 85.78% over 81.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AL FRESCO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AL FRESCO

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.19 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.78% · 81.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.20% ±1.73 31.4K openings

7 days · 85.78% ±1.07 81.8K openings

30 days · 85.78% ±1.07 81.8K openings

since tracking started · 85.78% ±1.07 81.8K openings

82.0% 85.0% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.43% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.71% – 86.86%, 81,825 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco?window=24h) | 31.4K | 84.20% ±1.73 | −3.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco?window=7d) | 81.8K | 85.78% ±1.07 | −3.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco) | 81.8K | 85.78% ±1.07 | −3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/al-fresco?window=all) | 81.8K | 85.78% ±1.07 | −3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50,000 | $580 | 0.5% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.86× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $233 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $131 | 0.3% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $100 | 0.5% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $70.77 | 0.6% | 14 | 17.5 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $45.32 | 0.6% | 20 | 26.2 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $35.36 | 0.2% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $24.21 | 0.4% | 34 | 35.0 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $22.80 | 0.1% | 2 | 8.7 | 0.23× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $22.62 | 0.1% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $22.18 | 0.1% | 4 | 8.7 | 0.46× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $18.20 | 0.7% | 52 | 69.9 | 0.74× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.86 | 0.1% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $10.03 | 2.2% | 427 | 428.2 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas) | 1 in 102 | $8.02 | 3.6% | 835 | 856.4 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $7.31 | 3.6% | 956 | 935.1 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $6.96 | 1.0% | 174 | 262.2 | 0.66× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 278 | $6.32 | 1.0% | 403 | 314.6 | 1.28× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $5.80 | 5.0% | 883 | 1660.4 | 0.53× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $5.07 | 15.8% | 4,908 | 5960.1 | 0.82× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $4.79 | 2.6% | 573 | 1040.0 | 0.55× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $3.25 | 3.6% | 1,290 | 2141.1 | 0.60× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $3.17 | 3.7% | 1,392 | 2254.7 | 0.62× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.96 | 7.4% | 4,852 | 4762.8 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.72 | 7.4% | 5,285 | 5182.3 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.46 | 6.0% | 4,465 | 4657.9 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 17 | $1.87 | 5.0% | 5,083 | 5138.6 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) | 1 in 16 | $1.62 | 4.6% | 5,402 | 5435.7 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.18 | 3.8% | 6,150 | 6169.8 | 1.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.18 | 3.8% | 6,054 | 6169.8 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.94 | 2.8% | 3,571 | 5654.2 | 0.63× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.94 | 3.3% | 6,925 | 6764.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii Eyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes) | 1 in 12 | $0.83 | 3.1% | 7,528 | 7104.9 | 1.06× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.83 | 3.1% | 7,572 | 7104.9 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.79 | 3.0% | 7,557 | 7183.5 | 1.05× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/al-fresco`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $581 232.4x 2026-11-09 14:16 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [MegA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MegA) $2.50 $580 231.9x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [MegA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MegA) $2.50 $580 231.9x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $580 231.9x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $577 230.8x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-field-tested) Hidden $2.50 $233 93.07x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $131 52.42x 2026-11-10 18:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=al-fresco)

[Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/V%C3%98ID) $2.50 $2.46 0.98x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-minimal-wear) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/V%C3%98ID) $2.50 $2.96 1.18x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii Eyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/V%C3%98ID) $2.50 $0.83 0.33x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/V%C3%98ID) $2.50 $0.94 0.38x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/V%C3%98ID) $2.50 $1.18 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [MILEI PN7 ⚡????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MILEI%20PN7%20%E2%9A%A1%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $2.50 $1.87 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii Eyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes) [MatiAss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MatiAss) $2.50 $0.83 0.33x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [MatiAss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MatiAss) $2.50 $0.79 0.32x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[Sticker | Lucas sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/V%C3%98ID) $2.50 $8.02 3.21x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/V%C3%98ID) $2.50 $1.54 0.62x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.43% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.50 | 87.54% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.50 | 87.22% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Immortal 0.0% gold 0.0% restricted 0.0% classified 2.3% pink 7.2% violet 43.6% blue 20.9% gray 8.9% blueLight 2.5% light blue 2.6% Rare 5.5% grey 6.5% best hit $581 (232.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt