--- title: "ALPHA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ALPHA JOKER ($138.62) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 94.66% over 1,875 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ALPHA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ALPHA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker?window=all) Price · $138.62 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 94.66% · 1,875 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 204 openings · below min 7 days · 94.87% ±10.93 1,479 openings 30 days · 94.66% ±9.48 1,875 openings since tracking started · 94.66% ±9.48 1,875 openings 48.5% 77.5% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker?window=24h) | 204 | 69.16% ±20.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker?window=7d) | 1,479 | 94.87% ±10.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker) | 1,875 | 94.66% ±9.48 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2-joker?window=all) | 1,875 | 94.66% ±9.48 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-08 09:47 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [FRi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FRi) $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-08 07:37 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [el abusador100](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/el%20abusador100) $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-05 05:43 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-05 03:26 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-04 19:16 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [GALLECSGO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GALLECSGO) $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-04 19:14 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [GALLECSGO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GALLECSGO) $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-04 19:13 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Katsumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Katsumi) $140 $1,645 11.73x 2026-11-04 19:06 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $137 $1,548 11.27x 2026-11-03 20:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=alpha-2-joker) [Sticker | Lucky 13 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-13) [Artór Baróc](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Art%C3%B3r%20Bar%C3%B3c) $136 $9.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Stream sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $136 $3.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:11 UTC [Sticker | Kawaii CT sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct) Hidden $137 $6.27 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Stream sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $137 $3.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $136 $4.68 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [Sticker | Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $136 $2.87 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [Sticker | Lotus sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $136 $6.75 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $137 $4.93 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Sticker | Flash Gaming (Holo) | Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flash-gaming-holo-boston-2018) Hidden $137 $61.64 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Sticker | IEM (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-iem-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $137 $11.19 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,645 (11.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.66 on average: an expected loss of $5.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt