---
title: "ALPHA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ALPHA ($15.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 84.93% over 4,042 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ALPHA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ALPHA

A case on Key-Drop (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2?window=all)

Price · $15.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $13.13 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.93% · 4,042 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.00% ±12.72 423 openings

7 days · 84.91% ±4.62 3,600 openings

30 days · 84.93% ±4.36 4,042 openings

since tracking started · 84.93% ±4.36 4,042 openings

68.5% 82.0% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2?window=24h) | 423 | 82.00% ±12.7 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2?window=7d) | 3,600 | 84.91% ±4.62 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2) | 4,042 | 84.93% ±4.36 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/alpha-2?window=all) | 4,042 | 84.93% ±4.36 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,042 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,513 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2015 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2015) | 1 in 20,000 | $588 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-katowice-2015) | 1 in 20,000 | $568 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 16,667 | $456 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 11,111 | $296 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 10,000 | $258 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 6,250 | $153 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| DreamHack Winter 2014 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dreamhack-winter-2014) | 1 in 5,882 | $141 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| rox \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 4,545 | $105 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Sticker \| FaZe Clan \| London 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-london-2018) | 1 in 4,167 | $96.02 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| FaZe Clan \| Boston 2018 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,941 | $68.75 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× |
| [Sticker \| Flash Gaming \| Boston 2018 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flash-gaming-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,703 | $61.64 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Sticker \| GODSENT \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-godsent-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 131 | $54.21 | 3.1% | 7 | 30.8 | 0.23× |
| [Sticker \| SK Gaming \| Cologne 2016 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sk-gaming-cologne-2016) | 1 in 121 | $49.71 | 3.1% | 10 | 33.5 | 0.30× |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro \| Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-cologne-2014) | 1 in 99 | $40.94 | 3.1% | 17 | 40.7 | 0.42× |
| [Sticker \| Astralis \| London 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-london-2018) | 1 in 93 | $38.34 | 3.1% | 18 | 43.5 | 0.41× |
| [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog) | 1 in 57 | $37.19 | 5.0% | 68 | 70.8 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Luminosity Gaming \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 50 | $32.36 | 5.0% | 30 | 81.4 | 0.37× |
| [Sticker \| DreamHack \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dreamhack-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 41 | $26.83 | 5.0% | 40 | 98.1 | 0.41× |
| [Sticker \| Crimson Web Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog) | 1 in 38 | $24.66 | 5.0% | 124 | 106.7 | 1.16× |
| [Sticker \| Vega Squadron \| Boston 2018 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vega-squadron-boston-2018) | 1 in 23 | $18.91 | 6.2% | 45 | 174.0 | 0.26× |
| [Sticker \| ESL One \| Katowice 2015 sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-katowice-2015) | 1 in 22 | $17.82 | 6.2% | 126 | 184.7 | 0.68× |
| [Sticker \| Movistar Riders \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-movistar-riders-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 19 | $15.78 | 6.2% | 52 | 208.6 | 0.25× |
| [Sticker \| G2 Esports \| Katowice 2019 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-katowice-2019) | 1 in 30 | $14.93 | 3.8% | 47 | 134.3 | 0.35× |
| [Sticker \| dexter \| Rio 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dexter-rio-2022) | 1 in 30 | $14.56 | 3.7% | 52 | 134.6 | 0.39× |
| [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe) | 1 in 30 | $14.03 | 3.6% | 143 | 136.6 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Toxic Flow sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-flow) | 1 in 28 | $12.44 | 3.4% | 155 | 143.3 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| IEM \| Katowice 2019 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-iem-katowice-2019) | 1 in 27 | $11.28 | 3.2% | 47 | 149.1 | 0.32× |
| [Sticker \| Rogue \| London 2018 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rogue-london-2018) | 1 in 27 | $11.22 | 3.2% | 49 | 149.4 | 0.33× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k) | 1 in 25 | $9.59 | 2.9% | 163 | 159.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Lucky 13 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-13) | 1 in 25 | $9.57 | 2.9% | 165 | 159.2 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Miami Flick sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick) | 1 in 24 | $8.18 | 2.6% | 192 | 169.5 | 1.13× |
| [Sticker \| max \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-max-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 24 | $8.12 | 2.6% | 80 | 170.0 | 0.47× |
| [Sticker \| 9z Team \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 23 | $7.83 | 2.5% | 73 | 172.4 | 0.42× |
| [Sticker \| Lotus sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus) | 1 in 23 | $7.44 | 2.5% | 183 | 176.0 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct) | 1 in 21 | $6.18 | 2.2% | 201 | 189.6 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Digi-Strike sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-digi-strike) | 1 in 20 | $5.12 | 2.0% | 195 | 204.4 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Ruby Wave sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave) | 1 in 19 | $4.93 | 1.9% | 219 | 207.5 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Ruby Stream sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream) | 1 in 16 | $3.13 | 1.5% | 240 | 248.9 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) | 1 in 16 | $2.84 | 1.4% | 273 | 257.7 | 1.06× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/alpha-2`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=alpha-2)

[Sticker | Lucky 13 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-13) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $15.00 $9.57 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | Rogue | London 2018 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rogue-london-2018) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $15.00 $11.22 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | Lucky 13 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-13) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $15.00 $9.57 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sticker | Crimson Web Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $15.00 $24.66 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[Sticker | ESL One | Katowice 2015 sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-katowice-2015) Hidden $15.00 $17.82 1.19x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | Crimson Web Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $15.00 $24.66 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | SK Gaming | Cologne 2016 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sk-gaming-cologne-2016) [Mbanili](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mbanili) $15.00 $49.71 3.31x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[Sticker | G2 Esports | Katowice 2019 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-katowice-2019) [Mbanili](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mbanili) $15.00 $14.93 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[Sticker | ESL One | Katowice 2015 sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-katowice-2015) [Mbanili](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mbanili) $15.00 $17.82 1.19x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[Sticker | Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) [Mbanili](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mbanili) $15.00 $2.84 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $15.00 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $15.00 | 87.62% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $15.00 | 87.83% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $15.00 | 87.84% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $15.00 | 87.60% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $15.00 | 87.93% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $15.00 | 87.61% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $15.00 | 87.88% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $15.00 | 87.52% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $15.00 | 87.70% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $15.00 | 87.63% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $15.00 | 87.73% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $15.00 | 88.02% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $15.00 | 87.68% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $15.00 | 87.79% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $15.00 | 87.70% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.00 | 87.81% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% violet 33.5% pink 33.4% high 0.0% blue 4.6% red 24.8% High Grade 3.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt