--- title: "AMERICAN DREAM case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AMERICAN DREAM ($80.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.24% over 265 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream rendered: 2026-11-11T18:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AMERICAN DREAM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AMERICAN DREAM A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream?window=all) Price · $80.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.24% · 265 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 61 openings · below min 7 days · 209 openings · below min 30 days · 265 openings · below min since tracking started · 265 openings · below min 72.5% 103.3% 134.0% **Small sample.** 265 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream?window=24h) | 61 | 107.83% ±25.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream?window=7d) | 209 | 88.13% ±14.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream) | 265 | 88.24% ±12.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/american-dream?window=all) | 265 | 88.24% ±12.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $929 11.61x 2026-11-09 16:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=american-dream) [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $80.00 $22.41 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $80.00 $21.30 0.27x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $80.00 $157 1.96x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $80.00 $237 2.97x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 $30.50 0.38x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $18.00 0.23x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $80.00 $237 2.97x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $80.00 $17.08 0.21x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $80.00 $16.53 0.21x 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) Hidden $80.00 $22.71 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $929 (11.61x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.24 on average: an expected loss of $11.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt