--- title: "AMPETER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AMPETER ($25.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.87% from 5 items with odds, observed 85.93% over 4,329 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter rendered: 2026-11-11T19:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AMPETER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AMPETER A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter?window=all) Price · $25.00 Advertised RTP · 87.87% · EV $21.97 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.93% · 4,329 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.51% ±23.23 284 openings 7 days · 87.47% ±7.24 2,887 openings 30 days · 85.93% ±5.84 4,329 openings since tracking started · 85.93% ±5.84 4,329 openings 62.5% 86.5% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter?window=24h) | 284 | 86.51% ±23.2 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter?window=7d) | 2,887 | 87.47% ±7.24 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter) | 4,329 | 85.93% ±5.84 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ampeter?window=all) | 4,329 | 85.93% ±5.84 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,329 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $232 | 7.4% | 20 | 30.3 | 0.66× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $218 | 18.8% | 66 | 82.3 | 0.80× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $136 | 38.9% | 287 | 272.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $66.01 | 33.4% | 465 | 480.5 | 0.97× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 80.0% | $0.42 | 1.5% | 3,491 | 3463.2 | 1.01× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/ampeter`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ampeter) [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Buca7a](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Buca7a) $25.00 $0.42 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Buca7a](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Buca7a) $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Turko](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Turko) $25.00 $0.42 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Turko](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Turko) $25.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $25.00 | 87.87% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $25.00 | 90.30% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $25.00 | 89.15% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $25.00 | 89.60% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $25.00 | 89.74% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $25.00 | 90.33% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $25.00 | 89.30% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $25.00 | 89.87% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $25.00 | 89.33% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $25.00 | 88.80% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $25.00 | 88.84% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $25.00 | 89.61% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $25.00 | 89.20% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $25.00 | 89.14% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $25.00 | 88.61% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $25.00 | 87.05% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.98% | 5 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.00 | 87.84% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 0.7% epic 1.9% extraordinary 17.4% violet 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.87 on average: an expected loss of $12.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt