--- title: "ANCIENT JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ANCIENT JOKER ($131.72) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.88% over 248 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ANCIENT JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ANCIENT JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker?window=all) Price · $131.72 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.88% · 248 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 47 openings · below min 7 days · 238 openings · below min 30 days · 248 openings · below min since tracking started · 248 openings · below min 65.5% 104.5% 143.5% **Small sample.** 248 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker?window=24h) | 47 | 104.46% ±38.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker?window=7d) | 238 | 86.80% ±18.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker) | 248 | 84.88% ±17.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ancient-joker?window=all) | 248 | 84.88% ±17.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $129 $1,019 7.88x 2026-11-09 23:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $128 $974 7.60x 2026-11-06 15:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $129 $962 7.45x 2026-11-05 22:13 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [√Sir Gregor Clegane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%88%9ASir%20Gregor%20Clegane) $130 $956 7.37x 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $130 $956 7.37x 2026-11-05 03:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $129 $682 5.29x 2026-11-04 15:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $130 $678 5.23x 2026-11-05 22:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $130 $678 5.23x 2026-11-05 03:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $130 $678 5.23x 2026-11-05 03:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $130 $678 5.23x 2026-11-05 03:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ancient-joker) [P250 | Undertow weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $129 $31.70 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $129 $20.31 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [P250 | Undertow (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $129 $25.76 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) Hidden $129 $57.56 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) Hidden $129 $35.36 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $129 $70.17 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) Hidden $129 $27.36 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) Hidden $129 $15.22 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $129 $19.78 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $129 $23.63 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,019 (7.88x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.88 on average: an expected loss of $15.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt