---
title: "APEX case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "APEX ($3.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 88.69% over 8,647 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [APEX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · APEX

A case on Key-Drop (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.62 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.69% · 8,647 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.20% ±7.49 2,061 openings

7 days · 88.05% ±3.91 7,753 openings

30 days · 88.69% ±3.72 8,647 openings

since tracking started · 88.69% ±3.72 8,647 openings

80.0% 88.3% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex?window=24h) | 2,061 | 88.20% ±7.49 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex?window=7d) | 7,753 | 88.05% ±3.91 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex) | 8,647 | 88.69% ±3.72 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/apex?window=all) | 8,647 | 88.69% ±3.72 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,648 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Crown sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown) | 1 in 20,000 | $430 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| 3DMAX \| Katowice 2015 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-katowice-2015) | 1 in 6,667 | $198 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-katowice-2015) | 1 in 5,000 | $186 | 1.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [Sticker \| Cotton Candy Flow sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cotton-candy-flow) | 1 in 2,439 | $32.47 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| Crimson Web Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog) | 1 in 1,887 | $24.66 | 0.5% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.31× |
| [Sticker \| Miami Tier6 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6) | 1 in 1,724 | $22.50 | 0.5% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.59× |
| [Sticker \| Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) | 1 in 1,099 | $14.41 | 0.5% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× |
| [Sticker \| Health sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-health) | 1 in 909 | $11.83 | 0.5% | 5 | 9.5 | 0.53× |
| [Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava) | 1 in 86 | $10.69 | 4.7% | 85 | 100.2 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| Lucky 13 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-13) | 1 in 77 | $9.57 | 4.7% | 100 | 112.0 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Miami Flick sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick) | 1 in 66 | $8.18 | 4.7% | 144 | 131.0 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| Lotus sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus) | 1 in 130 | $7.44 | 2.2% | 68 | 66.4 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Loving Eyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-loving-eyes) | 1 in 116 | $6.60 | 2.2% | 78 | 74.8 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Tornado Chaos sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos) | 1 in 114 | $6.48 | 2.2% | 65 | 76.2 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| V For Victory sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory) | 1 in 112 | $6.41 | 2.2% | 100 | 77.1 | 1.30× |
| [Sticker \| No Pats sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-no-pats) | 1 in 88 | $5.00 | 2.2% | 122 | 98.8 | 1.24× |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Austin 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-austin-2025) | 1 in 86 | $4.92 | 2.2% | 19 | 100.3 | 0.19× |
| [Sticker \| Neon MVP sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-mvp) | 1 in 85 | $4.88 | 2.2% | 89 | 101.2 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) | 1 in 85 | $4.86 | 2.2% | 95 | 101.6 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Gold Web sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-web) | 1 in 80 | $4.58 | 2.2% | 111 | 107.8 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Candy Buttery sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-candy-buttery) | 1 in 59 | $4.39 | 2.8% | 163 | 147.4 | 1.11× |
| [Sticker \| The Pro sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro) | 1 in 55 | $4.15 | 2.9% | 156 | 155.9 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) | 1 in 53 | $3.96 | 2.8% | 182 | 163.4 | 1.11× |
| [Sticker \| Phoenix Reborn sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-phoenix-reborn) | 1 in 52 | $3.88 | 2.8% | 142 | 166.7 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| Aces High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aces-high) | 1 in 45 | $3.40 | 2.8% | 265 | 190.3 | 1.39× |
| [Sticker \| Ruby Stream sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream) | 1 in 42 | $3.13 | 2.8% | 210 | 206.7 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Ouchie sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ouchie) | 1 in 42 | $3.13 | 2.8% | 180 | 206.7 | 0.87× |
| [Sticker \| Unicorn sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-unicorn) | 1 in 24 | $2.85 | 4.4% | 324 | 353.8 | 0.92× |
| [Sticker \| Killjoy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-killjoy) | 1 in 24 | $2.65 | 4.3% | 325 | 364.2 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| PAC AI sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pac-ai) | 1 in 24 | $2.60 | 4.2% | 301 | 366.9 | 0.82× |
| [Sticker \| Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) | 1 in 23 | $2.48 | 4.1% | 369 | 373.9 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Infinite Triangle sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-infinite-triangle) | 1 in 23 | $2.46 | 4.1% | 380 | 375.2 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Bomb Doge sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-doge) | 1 in 21 | $1.90 | 3.5% | 455 | 416.0 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| 3DMAX \| Austin 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-austin-2025) | 1 in 21 | $1.87 | 3.4% | 105 | 418.6 | 0.25× |
| [Sticker \| Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) | 1 in 17 | $1.18 | 2.6% | 510 | 503.3 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes) | 1 in 15 | $0.91 | 2.2% | 531 | 558.5 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii Eyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes) | 1 in 15 | $0.83 | 2.1% | 619 | 579.4 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Cutie sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cutie) | 1 in 14 | $0.74 | 2.0% | 617 | 606.7 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) | 1 in 14 | $0.66 | 1.8% | 629 | 635.0 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Ribbon Tie sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ribbon-tie) | 1 in 13 | $0.56 | 1.7% | 691 | 678.1 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/apex`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | 3DMAX | Katowice 2015 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-katowice-2015) [CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO!](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CAMPEONES%20DEL%20MUNDO!) $3.00 $201 66.92x 2026-11-06 18:28 UTC

[Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2015) [CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO!](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CAMPEONES%20DEL%20MUNDO!) $3.00 $201 66.92x 2026-11-06 18:28 UTC

[Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $3.00 $199 66.43x 2026-11-08 07:46 UTC

[Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $3.00 $198 65.91x 2026-11-11 02:58 UTC

[Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics | Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-katowice-2015) [grandu25](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/grandu25) $3.00 $189 62.92x 2026-11-03 13:29 UTC

[Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics | Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-katowice-2015) [pepokukusclan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pepokukusclan) $3.00 $186 61.91x 2026-11-09 11:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=apex)

[Sticker | Team Liquid | Austin 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-austin-2025) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $3.00 $4.92 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) Hidden $3.00 $1.19 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | Team Liquid (Holo) | Austin 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-holo-austin-2025) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $3.00 $4.92 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii Eyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes) [ÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%87ORAPHIRSIZI%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $3.00 $0.83 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Sticker | Killjoy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-killjoy) Hidden $3.00 $2.71 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii Eyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes) [ÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%87ORAPHIRSIZI%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $3.00 $0.83 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava) [Marťas](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mar%C5%A5as) $3.00 $10.69 3.56x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC

[Sticker | Ribbon Tie sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ribbon-tie) Hidden $3.00 $0.54 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC

[Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava) [Marťas](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mar%C5%A5as) $3.00 $10.55 3.52x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC

[Sticker | V For Victory sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory) [nati](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/nati) $3.00 $6.41 2.14x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.72% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 88.03% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 88.26% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.99% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 88.00% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 88.06% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.92% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 88.21% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.68% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.60% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.37% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.46% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 87.62% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.75% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.64% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 21.1% violet 50.2% high 0.1% red 3.6% #4b69ff 2.2% blue 22.8% best hit $201 (66.92x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt