--- title: "AQUA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AQUA JOKER ($111.49) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 71.89% over 577 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AQUA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AQUA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker?window=all) Price · $111.49 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 71.89% · 577 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 199 openings · below min 7 days · 456 openings · below min 30 days · 577 openings · below min since tracking started · 577 openings · below min 37.5% 62.3% 87.0% **Small sample.** 577 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker?window=24h) | 199 | 59.08% ±20.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker?window=7d) | 456 | 66.18% ±14.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker) | 577 | 71.89% ±14.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2-joker?window=all) | 577 | 71.89% ±14.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $112 $1,172 10.45x 2026-11-04 03:44 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [LLes \[-K-\] enS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LLes%20%5B-K-%5D%20enS) $111 $1,171 10.50x 2026-11-02 22:01 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [LLes \[-K-\] enS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LLes%20%5B-K-%5D%20enS) $111 $1,171 10.50x 2026-11-02 22:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $111 $1,171 10.50x 2026-11-02 22:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $111 $1,157 10.43x 2026-11-06 18:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $111 $1,157 10.44x 2026-11-06 10:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [Aq7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aq7) $109 $1,117 10.29x 2026-11-10 22:41 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $108 $1,117 10.31x 2026-11-10 06:12 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [LLes \[-K-\] enS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LLes%20%5B-K-%5D%20enS) $109 $1,117 10.29x 2026-11-10 05:08 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [LLes \[-K-\] enS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LLes%20%5B-K-%5D%20enS) $108 $1,117 10.31x 2026-11-10 05:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=aqua-2-joker) [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil) [Anton](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Anton) $109 $3.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) [Anton](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Anton) $109 $43.14 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics) [juanmii05](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/juanmii05) $109 $2.99 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) [juanmii05](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/juanmii05) $109 $2.70 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-field-tested) [juanmii05](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/juanmii05) $107 $3.37 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $107 $72.15 0.67x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) Hidden $107 $5.90 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) Hidden $107 $3.82 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $107 $49.03 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) Hidden $107 $3.82 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,172 (10.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 71.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $71.89 on average: an expected loss of $28.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt