---
title: "AQUA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AQUA ($6.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 58 items with odds, observed 83.91% over 14.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AQUA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AQUA

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2?window=all)

Price · $6.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $5.25 from 58 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.91% · 14.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.87% ±6.99 2,070 openings

7 days · 83.58% ±3.02 11.6K openings

30 days · 83.91% ±2.69 14.7K openings

since tracking started · 83.91% ±2.69 14.7K openings

77.0% 84.8% 92.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.22% – 86.60%, 14,733 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2?window=24h) | 2,070 | 84.87% ±6.99 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2?window=7d) | 11.6K | 83.58% ±3.02 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2) | 14.7K | 83.91% ±2.69 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/aqua-2?window=all) | 14.7K | 83.91% ±2.69 | −2.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,105 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 14,286 | $513 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $390 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $194 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $152 | 0.9% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $72.15 | 0.7% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $55.78 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $53.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $51.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $49.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $41.90 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $38.90 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $36.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $36.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $35.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $35.07 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $33.81 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $33.59 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $32.13 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $26.09 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $23.81 | 0.0% | 14 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $16.53 | 3.1% | 100 | 144.0 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $15.22 | 3.3% | 88 | 169.9 | 0.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $15.08 | 2.3% | 57 | 116.4 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 168 | $14.79 | 1.7% | 55 | 87.8 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 163 | $14.55 | 1.7% | 85 | 90.8 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 676 | $14.18 | 0.4% | 18 | 21.9 | 0.82× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 658 | $14.00 | 0.4% | 15 | 22.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $13.51 | 2.9% | 125 | 166.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $12.41 | 3.2% | 154 | 197.4 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $9.26 | 6.1% | 494 | 507.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $7.99 | 2.8% | 121 | 268.6 | 0.45× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.04 | 6.6% | 530 | 722.4 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.72 | 6.6% | 528 | 756.8 | 0.70× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $6.12 | 1.0% | 66 | 126.4 | 0.52× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $5.99 | 1.1% | 71 | 139.6 | 0.51× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $5.92 | 6.9% | 718 | 900.3 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $5.83 | 3.9% | 323 | 523.7 | 0.62× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $5.57 | 2.8% | 288 | 393.4 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $5.07 | 2.3% | 262 | 348.6 | 0.75× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $4.89 | 0.7% | 73 | 113.4 | 0.64× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.14 | 3.2% | 398 | 595.8 | 0.67× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $4.08 | 1.3% | 175 | 238.6 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $3.89 | 1.3% | 151 | 254.6 | 0.59× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.56 | 5.1% | 1,166 | 1103.3 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $3.44 | 1.3% | 229 | 302.4 | 0.76× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $3.44 | 1.3% | 181 | 302.9 | 0.60× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $3.40 | 1.3% | 173 | 307.4 | 0.56× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.37 | 2.2% | 386 | 509.8 | 0.76× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $3.34 | 1.4% | 217 | 315.8 | 0.69× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.90 | 2.8% | 508 | 761.9 | 0.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $2.82 | 0.9% | 182 | 244.7 | 0.74× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.78 | 2.4% | 451 | 667.5 | 0.68× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) | 1 in 12 | $2.72 | 4.3% | 1,295 | 1228.6 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $2.67 | 0.9% | 175 | 264.2 | 0.66× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.64 | 4.2% | 1,349 | 1243.4 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $2.61 | 0.9% | 172 | 272.8 | 0.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $2.28 | 1.0% | 197 | 329.6 | 0.60× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/aqua-2`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.00 $394 65.75x 2026-11-09 12:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=aqua-2)

[AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.00 $5.92 0.99x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) Hidden $6.00 $5.07 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.00 $2.90 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.00 $5.57 0.93x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) Hidden $6.00 $3.56 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[Sticker | Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) [sergi\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/sergi***-76561199816788873) $6.00 $2.72 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-field-tested) [sergi\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/sergi***-76561199816788873) $6.00 $3.37 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.00 $2.90 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.00 $5.99 1.00x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $6.00 $2.64 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $6.00 | 87.50% | 58 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $6.00 | 87.50% | 58 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $6.00 | 87.88% | 58 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $6.00 | 88.01% | 58 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $6.00 | 87.97% | 58 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $6.00 | 87.58% | 58 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.00 | 87.88% | 58 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $6.00 | 87.64% | 58 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $6.00 | 87.56% | 58 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $6.00 | 87.72% | 58 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $6.00 | 87.89% | 58 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $6.00 | 87.87% | 58 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $6.00 | 88.11% | 58 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $6.00 | 88.01% | 58 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $6.00 | 87.99% | 58 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $6.00 | 87.58% | 58 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $6.00 | 87.78% | 58 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.00 | 87.96% | 58 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% rare 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 18.6% pink 35.7% Legendary 5.1% violet 20.7% Mythical 5.2% uncommon 1.7% #8847ff 4.5% blue 8.4% best hit $394 (65.75x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt