--- title: "ARROW JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ARROW JOKER ($893.30) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 104.48% over 158 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker rendered: 2026-11-13T04:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ARROW JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ARROW JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker?window=all) Price · $893.30 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 104.48% · 158 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 99 openings · below min 30 days · 158 openings · below min since tracking started · 158 openings · below min 64.0% 124.5% 185.0% **Small sample.** 158 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker?window=24h) | 36 | 124.47% ±59.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker?window=7d) | 99 | 122.48% ±36.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker) | 158 | 104.48% ±26.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow-joker?window=all) | 158 | 104.48% ±26.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $910 $5,927 6.51x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $910 $5,927 6.51x 2026-11-12 17:44 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [vladut220](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/vladut220) $904 $5,759 6.37x 2026-11-08 01:27 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $904 $5,759 6.37x 2026-11-07 19:34 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $5,557 6.23x 2026-11-12 17:48 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $892 $5,557 6.23x 2026-11-10 05:52 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [vladut220](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/vladut220) $889 $5,401 6.07x 2026-11-08 01:28 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [JPons888](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JPons888) $889 $5,401 6.07x 2026-11-07 19:29 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $893 $5,401 6.05x 2026-11-03 00:44 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $893 $5,401 6.05x 2026-11-03 00:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=arrow-joker) [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $1,688 1.89x 2026-11-12 17:48 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $5,557 6.23x 2026-11-12 17:48 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $107 0.12x 2026-11-12 17:47 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $67.97 0.08x 2026-11-12 17:47 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $118 0.13x 2026-11-12 17:47 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $1,688 1.89x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $1,318 1.48x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $35.86 0.04x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $23.57 0.03x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $892 $1,688 1.89x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,927 (6.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 104.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $104.48 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt