---
title: "ARROW case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ARROW ($118.27) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 44 items with odds, observed 87.30% over 1,534 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ARROW](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ARROW

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow?window=all)

Price · $118.27

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $103.49 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.30% · 1,534 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.58% ±11.23 308 openings

7 days · 88.58% ±6.02 1,166 openings

30 days · 87.30% ±5.30 1,534 openings

since tracking started · 87.30% ±5.30 1,534 openings

71.5% 83.5% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow?window=24h) | 308 | 83.58% ±11.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow?window=7d) | 1,166 | 88.58% ±6.02 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow) | 1,534 | 87.30% ±5.30 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/arrow?window=all) | 1,534 | 87.30% ±5.30 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,534 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,557 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,775 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,003 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,685 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,572 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,319 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $532 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $414 | 1.4% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.75× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 75 | $393 | 5.1% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $385 | 2.2% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $336 | 1.7% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149 | $299 | 1.9% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $280 | 7.7% | 34 | 43.7 | 0.78× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $273 | 13.3% | 83 | 77.5 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 244 | $219 | 0.9% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 10.7% | $173 | 17.9% | 100 | 163.5 | 0.61× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $137 | 3.7% | 27 | 43.4 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $117 | 4.1% | 92 | 55.1 | 1.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $116 | 2.4% | 28 | 33.1 | 0.85× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $112 | 1.3% | 10 | 18.7 | 0.53× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $111 | 1.3% | 15 | 19.0 | 0.79× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $105 | 1.4% | 10 | 20.7 | 0.48× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $102 | 1.0% | 11 | 16.1 | 0.68× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $99.16 | 2.4% | 30 | 38.0 | 0.79× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $98.84 | 2.6% | 31 | 41.6 | 0.75× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $97.27 | 2.4% | 38 | 39.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $94.24 | 1.5% | 20 | 24.7 | 0.81× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $87.93 | 1.5% | 20 | 27.3 | 0.73× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $85.84 | 1.5% | 22 | 28.2 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $82.85 | 0.7% | 17 | 14.1 | 1.20× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $77.99 | 0.9% | 8 | 18.4 | 0.43× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $65.82 | 1.0% | 18 | 23.5 | 0.77× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $65.23 | 1.0% | 13 | 23.8 | 0.55× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $64.79 | 1.0% | 24 | 23.9 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $60.37 | 1.1% | 20 | 28.4 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $58.32 | 0.8% | 17 | 23.0 | 0.74× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $54.62 | 1.3% | 36 | 38.4 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $54.51 | 0.9% | 13 | 25.3 | 0.51× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $54.34 | 1.3% | 27 | 38.7 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $54.15 | 0.9% | 31 | 25.6 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $34.58 | 2.6% | 116 | 117.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $26.29 | 1.5% | 74 | 91.0 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $23.33 | 2.0% | 125 | 137.1 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 10.1% | $22.76 | 2.2% | 132 | 155.2 | 0.85× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/arrow`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $118 $1,339 11.32x 2026-11-04 23:55 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) [????????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $118 $561 4.74x 2026-11-04 23:58 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) [????????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $118 $561 4.74x 2026-11-04 23:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=arrow)

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $118 $107 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Overtake gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake) [KEKKWW](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KEKKWW) $118 $62.66 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) [KEKKWW](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KEKKWW) $118 $57.15 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) Hidden $118 $24.87 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $118 $118 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) Hidden $118 $26.09 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $118 $34.59 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $118 $101 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $118 $121 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $118 $22.76 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $118 | 87.50% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $118 | 87.26% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $118 | 87.57% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $118 | 88.20% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $118 | 88.18% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $118 | 87.98% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $118 | 87.71% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $118 | 87.70% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $118 | 87.98% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $118 | 87.86% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $118 | 87.66% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $118 | 87.78% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $118 | 87.76% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $118 | 87.68% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $118 | 88.08% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $118 | 87.70% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $118 | 87.78% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 37.2% classified 11.4% restricted 0.0% gold 15.2% extraordinary 9.5% pink 7.6% Legendary 8.9% violet 10.1% best hit $1,339 (11.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt