--- title: "ASIIMOV case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "ASIIMOV ($14.65) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 84.31% over 5,153 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ASIIMOV](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ASIIMOV A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov?window=all) Price · $14.65 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $12.82 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.31% · 5,153 openings, odds method Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.19% ±15.79 1,162 openings 7 days · 85.27% ±8.77 3,898 openings 30 days · 84.31% ±7.64 5,153 openings since tracking started · 84.31% ±7.64 5,153 openings 72.5% 89.0% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov?window=24h) | 1,162 | 89.19% ±15.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov?window=7d) | 3,898 | 85.27% ±8.77 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov) | 5,153 | 84.31% ±7.64 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/asiimov?window=all) | 5,153 | 84.31% ±7.64 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,153 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,418 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 500 | $294 | 4.6% | 6 | 10.3 | 0.58× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $207 | 17.6% | 40 | 56.2 | 0.71× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $151 | 17.7% | 67 | 77.3 | 0.87× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $110 | 17.6% | 104 | 106.2 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $53.67 | 17.6% | 314 | 216.9 | 1.45× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $14.58 | 10.7% | 476 | 484.4 | 0.98× | | [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 11.2% | $6.10 | 5.3% | 457 | 579.2 | 0.79× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 12.1% | $4.15 | 3.9% | 505 | 625.6 | 0.81× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.42 | 1.7% | 670 | 775.5 | 0.86× | | [P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) | 17.9% | $0.59 | 0.8% | 804 | 924.4 | 0.87× | | [P250 \| Bullfrog (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-field-tested) | 25.1% | $0.11 | 0.2% | 1,709 | 1296.0 | 1.32× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/asiimov`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $14.65 $1,418 96.76x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=asiimov) [FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $6.10 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $4.15 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $0.59 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $53.67 3.66x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $0.59 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $0.59 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $0.59 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $6.10 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $0.59 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [freecs2skin.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/freecs2skin.com) $14.65 $6.10 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $14.65 | 87.50% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $14.65 | 87.50% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $14.65 | 87.62% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $14.65 | 87.47% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $14.65 | 87.68% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $14.65 | 87.66% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $14.65 | 87.96% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $14.65 | 87.11% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $14.65 | 87.13% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $14.65 | 87.42% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $14.65 | 87.85% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $14.65 | 87.53% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $14.65 | 87.36% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $14.65 | 87.75% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $14.65 | 87.49% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $14.65 | 87.75% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $14.65 | 87.72% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.65 | 87.08% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.2% covert 8.9% classified 32.8% restricted 15.0% Restricted 17.9% Rare 25.1% best hit $1,418 (96.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt