--- title: "AVALANCHE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AVALANCHE JOKER ($4.97) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.62% over 3,845 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T04:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AVALANCHE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AVALANCHE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker?window=all) Price · $4.97 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.62% · 3,845 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 94 openings · below min 7 days · 85.25% ±6.27 3,170 openings 30 days · 84.62% ±5.65 3,845 openings since tracking started · 84.62% ±5.65 3,845 openings 49.5% 75.8% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker?window=24h) | 94 | 75.67% ±25.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker?window=7d) | 3,170 | 85.25% ±6.27 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker) | 3,845 | 84.62% ±5.65 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche-joker?window=all) | 3,845 | 84.62% ±5.65 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=avalanche-joker) [Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) [MiniBoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MiniBoo) $5.02 $0.48 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:26 UTC [SG 553 | Triarch weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch) [BARTOMI SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BARTOMI%20SKINS) $5.02 $1.40 0.28x 2026-11-12 01:03 UTC [MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.86 $0.18 0.04x 2026-11-12 01:03 UTC [P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.86 $0.41 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:03 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.86 $1.37 0.28x 2026-11-12 01:03 UTC [SG 553 | Triarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-battle-scarred) [BARTOMI SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BARTOMI%20SKINS) $4.86 $1.19 0.24x 2026-11-12 01:03 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) [Izan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Izan) $5.02 $0.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) [Robert Kurwica](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Robert%20Kurwica) $5.02 $3.71 0.74x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC [PP-Bizon | Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.86 $4.94 1.02x 2026-11-11 21:48 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) [Robert Kurwica](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Robert%20Kurwica) $4.86 $3.65 0.75x 2026-11-11 21:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.62 on average: an expected loss of $15.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt