---
title: "AVALANCHE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AVALANCHE ($0.74) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 43 items with odds, observed 84.01% over 7,023 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AVALANCHE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AVALANCHE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche?window=all)

Price · $0.74

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.65 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.01% · 7,023 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.98% ±7.51 853 openings

7 days · 83.09% ±2.91 5,802 openings

30 days · 84.01% ±2.65 7,023 openings

since tracking started · 84.01% ±2.65 7,023 openings

76.0% 84.0% 92.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.36% – 86.66%, 7,023 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche?window=24h) | 853 | 83.98% ±7.51 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche?window=7d) | 5,802 | 83.09% ±2.91 | −3.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche) | 7,023 | 84.01% ±2.65 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/avalanche?window=all) | 7,023 | 84.01% ±2.65 | −2.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,045 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $46.21 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $13.65 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.48 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.64 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $5.18 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $4.30 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 405 | $3.61 | 1.4% | 14 | 17.4 | 0.80× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 331 | $2.96 | 1.4% | 15 | 21.3 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $2.58 | 7.3% | 89 | 128.2 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $2.54 | 7.3% | 126 | 130.3 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,064 | $2.45 | 0.4% | 2 | 6.6 | 0.30× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $2.10 | 1.9% | 25 | 40.9 | 0.61× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $2.05 | 5.2% | 65 | 115.6 | 0.56× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $1.78 | 1.5% | 30 | 38.1 | 0.79× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $1.63 | 1.5% | 29 | 43.2 | 0.67× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $1.51 | 1.7% | 22 | 50.8 | 0.43× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $1.48 | 4.2% | 71 | 129.8 | 0.55× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $1.48 | 2.1% | 37 | 64.3 | 0.58× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-battle-scarred) | 1 in 107 | $1.46 | 2.1% | 38 | 66.0 | 0.58× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $1.29 | 2.0% | 35 | 69.6 | 0.50× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $1.28 | 2.1% | 33 | 73.5 | 0.45× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $1.26 | 2.0% | 35 | 72.9 | 0.48× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $1.25 | 2.1% | 44 | 77.1 | 0.57× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $1.22 | 2.1% | 55 | 77.0 | 0.71× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $1.22 | 2.1% | 37 | 77.0 | 0.48× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.89 | 8.6% | 244 | 439.0 | 0.56× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.82 | 3.5% | 96 | 197.4 | 0.49× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.80 | 9.5% | 262 | 543.4 | 0.48× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $0.69 | 0.9% | 60 | 59.0 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.53 | 4.4% | 392 | 378.1 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $0.48 | 1.0% | 56 | 97.1 | 0.58× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $0.47 | 1.0% | 50 | 100.0 | 0.50× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $0.42 | 1.1% | 70 | 117.0 | 0.60× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.41 | 3.8% | 417 | 419.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $0.38 | 1.0% | 68 | 116.2 | 0.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.29 | 1.1% | 115 | 169.7 | 0.68× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.27 | 1.1% | 107 | 187.5 | 0.57× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.20 | 2.0% | 262 | 448.9 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 2.2% | 657 | 595.8 | 1.10× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 2.2% | 610 | 595.8 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 11 | $0.15 | 2.1% | 650 | 626.4 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 637 | 643.3 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/avalanche`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=avalanche)

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $0.74 $0.53 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) [ExecutoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ExecutoR) $0.74 $0.53 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.74 $0.41 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.74 $1.51 2.04x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) [ExecutoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ExecutoR) $0.74 $0.50 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) [Klemzila23](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Klemzila23) $0.74 $0.14 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $0.74 $0.39 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.74 $0.15 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[XM1014 | Black Tie (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.74 $1.37 1.85x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $0.74 $0.85 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.74 | 87.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.74 | 87.40% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.74 | 88.36% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.74 | 88.37% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.74 | 87.89% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.74 | 88.26% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.74 | 87.66% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.74 | 87.65% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.74 | 88.13% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.74 | 87.16% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.74 | 88.01% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.74 | 86.85% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.74 | 86.52% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.74 | 86.63% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.74 | 87.11% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.74 | 87.62% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.74 | 87.91% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.0% mil spec 14.7% classified 0.1% restricted 6.8% blue 11.9% #8847ff 2.9% Mythical 3.2% Restricted 0.6% violet 17.9% Uncommon 9.2% milspec 7.7% #4b69ff 15.6% blueLight 8.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt