--- title: "AWP JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AWP JOKER ($66.62) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.77% over 2,268 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [AWP JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · AWP JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker?window=all) Price · $66.62 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.77% · 2,268 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 144 openings · below min 7 days · 93.65% ±9.76 1,975 openings 30 days · 92.77% ±8.95 2,268 openings since tracking started · 92.77% ±8.95 2,268 openings 68.0% 111.3% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker?window=24h) | 144 | 111.16% ±42.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker?window=7d) | 1,975 | 93.65% ±9.76 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker) | 2,268 | 92.77% ±8.95 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/awp-joker?window=all) | 2,268 | 92.77% ±8.95 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $66.62 $821 12.33x 2026-11-02 22:39 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $66.62 $821 12.33x 2026-11-02 22:39 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [76561198257999306](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/76561198257999306) $66.46 $820 12.34x 2026-11-03 12:07 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [76561198257999306](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/76561198257999306) $66.46 $820 12.34x 2026-11-03 12:06 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $66.46 $820 12.34x 2026-11-03 12:05 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $66.46 $820 12.34x 2026-11-03 12:02 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $66.22 $801 12.10x 2026-11-05 22:13 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [Nixxxtor](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nixxxtor) $65.72 $798 12.15x 2026-11-08 15:37 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $65.72 $798 12.15x 2026-11-08 10:20 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $65.99 $797 12.08x 2026-11-06 13:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=awp-joker) [AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $63.77 $57.35 0.90x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $63.34 $55.34 0.87x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.34 $24.21 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.34 $24.21 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.34 $24.21 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AWP | The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) Hidden $63.34 $10.77 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) Hidden $63.34 $7.97 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [TraficanteDeAlfajores](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TraficanteDeAlfajores) $63.77 $755 11.83x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $63.99 $54.06 0.84x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [AWP | Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) Hidden $63.99 $5.04 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $821 (12.33x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.77 on average: an expected loss of $7.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt