--- title: "BANANA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BANANA JOKER ($8.71) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.87% over 3,818 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T22:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BANANA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BANANA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker?window=all) Price · $8.71 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.87% · 3,818 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 196 openings · below min 7 days · 91.56% ±7.90 2,905 openings 30 days · 88.87% ±6.71 3,818 openings since tracking started · 88.87% ±6.71 3,818 openings 56.0% 88.8% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker?window=24h) | 196 | 88.85% ±32.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker?window=7d) | 2,905 | 91.56% ±7.90 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker) | 3,818 | 88.87% ±6.71 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana-joker?window=all) | 3,818 | 88.87% ±6.71 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=banana-joker) [Galil AR | Rocket Pop weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop) [Robert Kurwica](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Robert%20Kurwica) $8.54 $1.18 0.14x 2026-11-11 21:46 UTC [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) [Robert Kurwica](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Robert%20Kurwica) $8.42 $1.33 0.16x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $8.42 $14.39 1.71x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $8.42 $12.56 1.49x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) Hidden $8.42 $1.48 0.18x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) [⚡Lakatos Dzsézönsztetem⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%A1Lakatos%20Dzs%C3%A9z%C3%B6nsztetem%E2%9A%A1) $8.54 $0.21 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon) [afpf ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/afpf%20%E3%83%84) $8.54 $0.64 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) [Napoleon](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Napoleon) $8.54 $0.21 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC [Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) Hidden $8.42 $0.45 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $8.42 $6.03 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt