---
title: "BANANA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BANANA ($1.07) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 49 items with odds, observed 82.58% over 7,794 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BANANA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BANANA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana?window=all)

Price · $1.07

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.94 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.58% · 7,794 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.85% ±9.67 884 openings

7 days · 82.33% ±3.66 6,496 openings

30 days · 82.58% ±3.35 7,794 openings

since tracking started · 82.58% ±3.35 7,794 openings

71.5% 81.8% 92.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.41% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.22% – 85.93%, 7,794 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana?window=24h) | 884 | 81.85% ±9.67 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana?window=7d) | 6,496 | 82.33% ±3.66 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana) | 7,794 | 82.58% ±3.35 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/banana?window=all) | 7,794 | 82.58% ±3.35 | −2.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,802 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $80.48 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $36.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $21.14 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.83× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $14.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,846 | $13.48 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 1 in 3,846 | $13.42 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $13.28 | 0.8% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $12.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 862 | $9.72 | 1.2% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,266 | $5.81 | 0.5% | 1 | 6.2 | 0.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $5.77 | 0.5% | 2 | 6.2 | 0.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 417 | $4.67 | 1.2% | 16 | 18.7 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $4.61 | 0.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 1,923 | $4.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $3.34 | 4.0% | 72 | 87.1 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $3.22 | 3.5% | 61 | 78.7 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $2.97 | 3.8% | 52 | 92.5 | 0.56× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $2.88 | 2.5% | 41 | 64.0 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $2.69 | 4.2% | 52 | 112.7 | 0.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $2.57 | 2.0% | 37 | 55.6 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $2.39 | 3.6% | 51 | 110.4 | 0.46× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.92 | 6.4% | 132 | 242.0 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $1.91 | 4.5% | 98 | 172.9 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $1.90 | 4.5% | 91 | 174.7 | 0.52× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $1.81 | 3.7% | 63 | 148.8 | 0.42× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $1.46 | 1.7% | 52 | 85.7 | 0.61× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $1.40 | 1.8% | 64 | 93.2 | 0.69× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $1.40 | 2.0% | 61 | 105.6 | 0.58× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $1.39 | 1.9% | 77 | 100.8 | 0.76× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $1.37 | 2.1% | 66 | 110.2 | 0.60× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $1.36 | 1.8% | 58 | 98.7 | 0.59× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $1.34 | 2.5% | 79 | 137.2 | 0.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $1.33 | 1.2% | 37 | 67.6 | 0.55× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $1.28 | 2.2% | 69 | 126.3 | 0.55× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $1.22 | 2.2% | 85 | 130.8 | 0.65× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $1.21 | 2.2% | 88 | 133.0 | 0.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $1.07 | 1.5% | 62 | 104.4 | 0.59× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $1.00 | 2.7% | 119 | 193.8 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.97 | 1.3% | 58 | 99.4 | 0.58× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.89 | 2.8% | 124 | 230.9 | 0.54× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $0.88 | 1.4% | 58 | 113.9 | 0.51× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.82 | 1.6% | 80 | 140.7 | 0.57× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.72 | 4.1% | 423 | 418.3 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.45 | 2.0% | 195 | 326.0 | 0.60× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.45 | 3.1% | 550 | 504.8 | 1.09× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.26 | 2.2% | 618 | 628.6 | 0.98× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 2.0% | 738 | 684.7 | 1.08× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-minimal-wear) | 10.3% | $0.14 | 1.5% | 901 | 805.2 | 1.12× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 12.3% | $0.09 | 1.2% | 910 | 960.1 | 0.95× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/banana`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=banana)

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner) [spundzbob CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/spundzbob%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $1.07 $1.03 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $1.07 $0.21 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.07 $0.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) Hidden $1.07 $2.68 2.50x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.07 $0.11 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.07 $0.11 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-minimal-wear) [Lush](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lush) $1.07 $0.14 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Limelight weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight) [ezxtassy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ezxtassy) $1.07 $1.35 1.26x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-well-worn) [ezxtassy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ezxtassy) $1.07 $1.37 1.28x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $1.07 $2.37 2.21x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.07 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.07 | 89.46% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.07 | 87.65% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.07 | 87.69% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.07 | 86.84% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.07 | 86.86% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.07 | 86.82% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.07 | 87.06% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.07 | 87.35% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.07 | 87.13% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.07 | 86.51% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.07 | 86.65% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.07 | 87.56% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.07 | 87.80% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.07 | 88.32% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.07 | 88.00% | 49 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.07 | 87.37% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 1.5% 3 1.4% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% Legendary 0.0% mil spec 9.4% violet 15.1% restricted 4.5% Uncommon 1.2% #8847ff 4.7% Rare 1.4% light blue 3.1% blue 50.9% milspec 1.8% #4b69ff 0.9% Mythical 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt