--- title: "BEAST JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BEAST JOKER ($5.92) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.78% over 6,794 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BEAST JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BEAST JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker?window=all) Price · $5.92 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.78% · 6,794 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 534 openings · below min 7 days · 86.66% ±3.93 5,674 openings 30 days · 87.78% ±3.64 6,794 openings since tracking started · 87.78% ±3.64 6,794 openings 61.5% 76.8% 92.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker?window=24h) | 534 | 73.69% ±11.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker?window=7d) | 5,674 | 86.66% ±3.93 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker) | 6,794 | 87.78% ±3.64 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast-joker?window=all) | 6,794 | 87.78% ±3.64 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=beast-joker) [M4A1-S | Nitro weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro) [elmelocotones](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elmelocotones) $5.83 $0.52 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) [elmelocotones](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elmelocotones) $5.84 $0.52 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:56 UTC [Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) Hidden $5.84 $3.04 0.52x 2026-11-11 17:56 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.84 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:56 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $5.84 $0.45 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) Hidden $5.84 $1.53 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:56 UTC [Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.84 $0.82 0.14x 2026-11-11 17:56 UTC [Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) [elmelocotones](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elmelocotones) $5.83 $0.30 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Sticker | Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) [elmelocotones](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elmelocotones) $5.83 $0.18 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) [elmelocotones](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elmelocotones) $5.84 $0.30 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.78 on average: an expected loss of $12.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt