---
title: "BEAST case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BEAST ($0.60) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 81.98% over 15.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BEAST](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BEAST

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast?window=all)

Price · $0.60

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.52 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.98% · 15.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.08% ±6.00 1,751 openings

7 days · 82.70% ±2.37 12.4K openings

30 days · 81.98% ±2.09 15.9K openings

since tracking started · 81.98% ±2.09 15.9K openings

75.5% 82.0% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.42% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.89% – 84.08%, 15,864 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast?window=24h) | 1,751 | 82.08% ±6.00 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast?window=7d) | 12.4K | 82.70% ±2.37 | −3.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast) | 15.9K | 81.98% ±2.09 | −4.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/beast?window=all) | 15.9K | 81.98% ±2.09 | −4.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $41.37 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $23.44 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $14.20 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $12.09 | 0.6% | 9 | 4.0 | 2.27× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $10.39 | 0.6% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 3,226 | $9.69 | 0.6% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $7.50 | 0.6% | 2 | 6.3 | 0.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 1,562 | $4.67 | 0.6% | 7 | 10.2 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.30 | 0.6% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.26× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $2.85 | 0.6% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× |
| [P90 \| Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $2.14 | 4.3% | 258 | 167.3 | 1.54× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $1.65 | 1.2% | 50 | 62.1 | 0.81× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $1.61 | 4.3% | 316 | 222.5 | 1.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.56 | 4.3% | 243 | 229.7 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $1.34 | 2.8% | 61 | 171.4 | 0.36× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $1.29 | 2.9% | 68 | 185.1 | 0.37× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Bloody charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-bloody) | 1 in 27 | $1.12 | 7.9% | 432 | 584.7 | 0.74× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.10 | 7.9% | 405 | 595.4 | 0.68× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.86 | 3.0% | 189 | 289.2 | 0.65× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.82 | 5.2% | 169 | 532.5 | 0.32× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.82 | 14.8% | 1,745 | 1502.8 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.51 | 2.4% | 143 | 384.7 | 0.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $0.49 | 2.4% | 129 | 410.4 | 0.31× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.49 | 2.3% | 141 | 398.2 | 0.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.48 | 2.4% | 195 | 410.0 | 0.48× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.45 | 1.7% | 134 | 320.9 | 0.42× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.45 | 2.9% | 212 | 537.6 | 0.39× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.45 | 1.4% | 97 | 266.8 | 0.36× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $0.44 | 1.5% | 132 | 275.4 | 0.48× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.42 | 1.8% | 150 | 353.5 | 0.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $0.41 | 1.5% | 133 | 304.1 | 0.44× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 | 3.7% | 834 | 954.1 | 0.87× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.30 | 3.5% | 823 | 979.1 | 0.84× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 2.3% | 1,323 | 1291.7 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.14 | 2.2% | 1,670 | 1328.0 | 1.26× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.11 | 1.9% | 2,057 | 1462.4 | 1.41× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.09 | 1.7% | 2,151 | 1587.8 | 1.35× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/beast`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) [085](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/085) $0.60 $41.60 69.33x 2026-11-07 13:14 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) [085](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/085) $0.60 $41.60 69.33x 2026-11-07 13:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=beast)

[CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-field-tested) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $0.60 $0.30 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $0.11 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $0.47 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Bloody charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-bloody) Hidden $0.60 $1.06 1.77x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $0.60 $0.48 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) [Klemzila23](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Klemzila23) $0.60 $0.11 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $0.60 $0.30 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $0.44 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $0.12 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $0.60 $0.30 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 87.02% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 87.30% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 87.32% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 86.67% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 86.25% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 86.31% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 86.39% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.71% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 86.59% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 87.78% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 86.93% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 83.16% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 86.11% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 85.62% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 86.64% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 86.27% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.2% pink 0.1% violet 30.6% restricted 6.9% blue 20.3% Mythical 10.4% #8847ff 6.0% mil spec 5.1% Rare 6.0% Mil Spec 6.2% milspec 8.4% best hit $41.60 (69.33x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt